有色金属基础周报：中东战争持续，全球通胀预期增强有色金属整体趋于调整-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East war continues, enhancing the global inflation expectation, and the non - ferrous metals market is generally in an adjustment state [1]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices are affected by macro factors and fundamentals, with potential downward risks but also support from domestic de - stocking and strong consumption [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Viewpoint Summary - Copper: High - level range operation (98000 - 106000), with prices under pressure in the high - level range. Macro factors have an increasing reverse impact, and the supply and demand situation is complex. It's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies or wait and see [3]. - Aluminum: Oscillating upward. The price of domestic bauxite is stable, and the alumina price is rising. The supply is affected by the Middle - East situation. It's recommended for long - side allocation [3]. - Alumina: Low - level oscillation. The downstream demand is gradually picking up, and it's recommended for short - term long - side trading [3]. - Aluminum alloy: Oscillating upward. The impact of the Middle - East situation on prices is two - sided, and it's recommended for long - side allocation while controlling positions [3]. - Zinc: Oscillating and adjusting, tending to be weak. The supply and demand fundamentals provide limited support, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - Lead: Breaking through the support level and moving downward. The inventory is increasing rapidly, and it's recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies [3]. - Nickel: Oscillating. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it's recommended for short - term short - side trading [4]. - Stainless steel: Oscillating. It's recommended for short - term trading [4]. - Tin: Wide - range oscillation. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery state. It's recommended for range trading [4]. - Industrial silicon: Oscillating and rebounding. The production and inventory situation is changing, and it's recommended to hold long positions moderately on dips [4]. - Polysilicon: Low - level oscillation. It's recommended to allocate long positions moderately and wait for policy signals [4]. - Lithium carbonate: Wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it's recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Macro - Macro Hotspots: In the week from March 9th to March 15th, important economic data were released. For example, China's February CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year. The US February CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year [13][14]. - Next Week's Macro Data Calendar: From March 16th to March 22nd, a series of important economic data are scheduled to be released, including China's February social consumer goods retail sales and the US February core PPI [19]. 3.3 Copper - Market Review: This week, copper prices were under pressure in the high - level range. The macro factors had a significant impact, and the fundamentals were complex [3]. - Key Data Tracking: Include LME copper (spot/three - month) premium/discount, COMEX institutional positions, and global visible copper inventory [28][30][35]. 3.4 Aluminum - Market Review: This week, the aluminum price was in a high - level oscillation with an overall upward trend [40]. - Key Data Tracking: Include the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods, social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum [44][46][48]. 3.5 Zinc - Market Review: This week, zinc prices adjusted after a rise and showed a weakening trend [53]. - Key Data Tracking: Include the inventory of zinc in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global visible zinc inventory, and the premium of 0 zinc ingots [56][57][61]. 3.6 Lead - Market Review: This week, lead prices oscillated downward and fluctuated within a certain range [65]. - Key Data Tracking: Include the inventory of lead in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, global lead inventory, and the lead forward curve [67][70][75]. 3.7 Nickel - Market Review: This week, nickel prices continued to oscillate and adjust, with a short - term weakening trend [79]. - Key Data Tracking: Include the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME nickel inventory, and the price of high - nickel iron and Jinchuan nickel plates [82][83][88]. 3.8 Tin - Market Review: This week, tin prices oscillated and declined, with a wide - range oscillation [96]. - Key Data Tracking: Include the futures closing price of tin, tin premium/discount, and tin - related product prices [98][99][104]. 3.9 Gold, Silver and Other Varieties - Trend Analysis: Gold, platinum, silver, and palladium are in different states of oscillation. Gold maintains an overall upward trend, while silver oscillates and adjusts, and palladium has a wide - range oscillation [110][111][113]. - Market Review: Industrial silicon has a wide - range oscillation, polysilicon oscillates downward, alumina has a certain trend, and aluminum alloy oscillates and rebounds with upward pressure. Lithium carbonate oscillates and rebounds with a wide - range oscillation [115][116][118][120].