首席点评：地缘冲突持续，原油推动能化板块走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a "Cautiously Bullish" or "Cautiously Bearish" rating for various commodities and financial instruments. Cautiously Bullish ratings are given to indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), crude oil, methanol, rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn. Cautiously Bearish ratings are given to rebar, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, and apples [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts, especially the US-Iran conflict, have a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets. The conflict has led to a rise in oil prices, fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, and has also affected the prices of various commodities and financial instruments [1]. - The market is in a transition from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven" as the annual and first-quarter reports of listed companies are gradually disclosed. Industries with strong performance certainty are expected to attract more funds, while stocks without performance support may continue to be weak [4][13]. - The performance of different commodities and financial instruments is affected by a combination of factors, including supply and demand, geopolitical risks, and macroeconomic policies. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Main News 3.1.1. International News - Japan plans to release about 80 million barrels of oil reserves starting from March 16 to ease the oil price increase caused by the tense Middle East situation. The government also plans to resume providing price subsidies to oil wholesalers on the 19th to stabilize oil prices [7]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - In 2025, the supervision and sampling pass rate of major food products in China reached 99.37%, and the overall food safety level continued to improve. Food production and operation enterprises have equipped a large number of food safety supervisors and staff, achieving full coverage of large-scale food enterprises [8]. 3.1.3. Industry News - In 2026, the first convertible bond conversion and capital increase case in the banking industry was realized by Chengdu Bank. The bank's registered capital increased from 3.736 billion yuan to 4.238 billion yuan, with a conversion rate of 99.94%. More than 80 city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, and rural credit cooperatives have completed registered capital changes this year, mostly through capital increases [9][10]. 3.2. Overseas Market Daily Returns - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas market products on March 12 and 13, 2026, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, LME zinc, LME nickel, ICE No. 11 sugar, ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn [11]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - Stock Indices: The US three major indices fluctuated, and the previous trading day's stock indices declined. The food and beverage sector led the rise, while the comprehensive sector led the decline. The market turnover was 2.42 trillion yuan. As the annual and first-quarter reports are disclosed, the market will shift from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven", and stocks with strong performance certainty are expected to attract more funds. In the long term, the stock index is expected to return to an upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [4][13]. - Treasury Bonds: The long-term Treasury bonds declined. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 10.11 billion yuan last week, and short-term interest rates rose. The tense Middle East situation pushed up oil prices and inflation expectations, and the US Treasury bond yields continued to rise. The domestic economic data was good, and the government bond scale in the government work report was large. The short-term Treasury bond futures prices are still supported, but the long-term Treasury bond futures prices will continue to be under pressure [14][15]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The Middle East situation remains tense, and the geopolitical risk premium supports the oil price to be bullish. However, as the conflict has not escalated to an extreme level, and the market has priced in the current intensity, the oil price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [2][16]. - Methanol: Methanol prices rose. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants in China decreased. The overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly compared with the previous period but increased compared with the same period last year. The coastal methanol inventory is at a relatively high level and increased slightly. The expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 260,000 - 270,000 tons [2][17]. - Rubber: Natural rubber futures fluctuated at night. The rubber is in the low-yield season, and the supply elasticity is weak in the short term. The raw material rubber price is relatively firm. The demand side of all-steel tires has stable operation. The rubber price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [18]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefins closed up on Friday. The prices of linear LL and some拉丝 PP of Sinopec and PetroChina showed different trends. The increase in the Middle East situation and the slight rebound of international oil prices have a positive impact on chemicals. The market sentiment is high, and the macro environment has a great impact on chemicals. The future trend depends on the actual operating conditions of the plants [19]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased, and the inventory of soda ash production enterprises also decreased. The glass inventory needs to be further digested, and the soda ash industry has certain inventory digestion pressure in the short term. The commodity market is affected by the macro environment, and rational response is recommended [20][21]. 3.3.3. Metals - Precious Metals: The US-Iran conflict continues, and the high volatility of international oil prices pushes up global inflation expectations. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has significantly decreased, and the US dollar index and US Treasury bond yields have risen, suppressing the performance of precious metals in the short term. In the long term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, inflation resistance, de-dollarization, and central bank gold purchases [22]. - Copper: The copper price closed down at night. The supply of concentrate is still tight, and the smelting profit is at the break-even point. The smelting output has increased in general. The power investment is stable, the automobile production and sales are growing, the household appliance production is decreasing, and the real estate market is weak. The copper price may fluctuate in a range in the short term [23]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed down at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has decreased, and the supply of concentrate is temporarily tight. The smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The infrastructure investment growth rate is slowing down, the automobile production and sales are growing, the household appliance production is decreasing, and the real estate market is weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals [24]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fell at night. Bahrain Aluminum announced the suspension of three production lines, and Norsk Hydro's Qatar aluminum smelter will stop reducing production. The US-Iran conflict poses risks to the electrolytic aluminum supply in the Middle East. The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a regional supply crisis. In the short term, the market is mainly driven by geopolitical factors, and there is no sign of improvement in the industrial level in the medium and short term. In the long term, low inventory, limited supply, and stable demand provide support for the aluminum price [25]. 3.3.4. Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The supply of coking coal increased, and the demand for coking coal and coke weakened due to the decline in hot metal production. However, with the end of environmental protection restrictions and the resumption of production, the hot metal production is expected to increase, which will drive the improvement of the demand for coking coal and coke. The geopolitical situation may also stimulate the coal price. The future trend depends on the hot metal production, mine operation, and geopolitical situation [26]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. The soybean harvest progress in Brazil is slower than the same period. The USDA report slightly increased the US soybean crushing volume. The Middle East situation has increased the market's concern about supply interruption, and the US soybean price has reached a new high. The domestic soybean meal price follows the US soybean price and is also affected by the news of customs inspection and export suspension. The protein meal is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short term [27]. - Oils and Fats: The prices of soybean and palm oil fluctuated and closed up at night, while the rapeseed oil price closed down slightly. The MPOB report shows that the palm oil production and export in Malaysia decreased in February, and the inventory decreased slightly. The increase in oil prices has driven the rise of vegetable oil prices. The macro environment is complex, and the oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [28]. - Hogs: The hog market shows regional differences. The price in the northern market fluctuated slightly, and the supply and demand are basically balanced. The price in the southern market is stable, and the supply is still abundant. The short-term hog price is expected to be under pressure [29]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar price fluctuated at night. The Iran situation may push up the ethanol-to-sugar price, and the sugar mill may adjust the sugar production ratio. The short-term raw sugar price is expected to be volatile. The Brazilian production may decrease, which may offset part of the supply surplus. The domestic sugar price is boosted by the overseas market, and attention should be paid to the macro impact [30]. - Cotton: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated at night. The adjustment of the market due to the Middle East situation may be basically over, and the回调 amplitude is expected to be limited. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the tight supply and demand situation. The domestic consumption has increased, and the inventory is low, which provides support for the cotton price [31]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index fell by 7.08% on Friday. The SCFI European line price increased, reflecting the price increase of shipping companies in the second half of March. The traditional off-season makes it difficult to maintain the price increase. The European line is expected to return to its seasonal pricing after the short-term geopolitical impact eases. Attention should be paid to the price increase letters of shipping companies in April and the actual implementation of prices [3][32][33].