养殖产业周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Pig - Short - term: Pig prices are in a bottom - grinding phase. The supply exceeds demand due to increased出栏 plans in March, high pig weights, and seasonal consumption slump, limiting price rebounds. Attention should be paid to policies, second - round fattening, and frozen product warehousing for price support. - Medium - to - long - term: Supply is abundant in the first half of the year, pressuring price rebounds. Supply will gradually tighten from July to October due to capacity reduction from September to December 2025, but price increases are cautiously viewed as sow inventory in December 2025 was above the equilibrium level, combined with cost - cutting and potential supply post - ponement [4]. Egg - Short - term: With high egg - laying hen inventory, limited terminal consumption growth restricts egg price increases. - Medium - to - long - term: Although new - laying hen increments are limited, high inventory pressure persists due to slow capacity clearance, and the supply - demand situation is unlikely to improve fundamentally [5][76]. Corn - Short - term: Tight supply - demand conditions support high prices, but policy expectations and substitution demand may suppress price increases. - Medium - to - long - term: Supply will increase, while demand is weak, leading to a looser supply - demand pattern and potential market corrections [6][108]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Feed and Livestock Farming View Summary Pig - Price: As of March 13, the national spot price was 10.03 yuan/kg, down 0.26 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 10.18 yuan/kg, down 0.37 yuan/kg. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 11,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The 05 contract basis was - 970 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan/ton. - Supply: Supply in 2026 is generally abundant. Pressure is high in the first half of the year, but supply will decrease marginally from July to October. The March sample出栏 plan increased month - on - month. The average出栏 weight continued to rise. - Demand: Slaughter rates and volumes slowly recovered, but pork consumption entered the off - season, with a slight decline in fresh sales rate and increased frozen product inventory. - Cost: Piglet and sow prices declined, and breeding profits for self - breeding and purchasing piglets both decreased. - Strategy: Adopt a short - selling approach for 05 and 07 on rebounds; treat 09 with a neutral view; be cautious about bullishness for 11 and 01 before effective capacity reduction. Farmers can conduct rolling hedging at profitable levels [4]. Egg - Price: As of March 13, the average price in the main producing areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin; in the main selling areas, it was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.14 yuan/jin. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 3,433 yuan/500 kg, up 44 yuan/500 kg. The basis was - 593 yuan/500 kg, up 66 yuan/500 kg. - Supply: The inventory of laying hens remained at a high level. Although the number of old hens出栏 increased, the supply pressure was only temporarily relieved. In the long run, high inventory pressure persists. - Demand: Egg demand continued to recover, but terminal consumption was still in the off - season, and the recovery lacked sustainable momentum. - Strategy: In the short term, beware of callback risks after over - consuming demand benefits and avoid chasing high prices. In the long term, focus on capacity clearance and real demand recovery before making investment decisions [5][76]. Corn - Price: As of March 13, the平仓 price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,420 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. The main 2605 futures contract closed at 2,386 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The basis was 34 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton. - Supply: The supply remained tight. Farmers' grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year, and effective market supply was insufficient. - Demand: Deep - processing demand was supported by rigid needs, while feed - end procurement was cautious. - Strategy: In the short term, go long on dips with a light position and seize upward opportunities. In the long term, take profits gradually at high prices and beware of callback risks [6][108]. 02 Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - Price: National spot price, Henan pig price, and futures price all declined slightly. The basis weakened [4][8][11]. - Supply: The average出栏 weight increased, the proportion of large pigs出栏 increased, and the proportion of small pigs出栏 decreased. The 3 - month sample出栏 plan increased month - on - month. - Demand: Slaughter rates and volumes increased, but the fresh sales rate decreased, and the frozen product inventory rate increased. - Cost: Piglet and sow prices decreased, and breeding profits for self - breeding and purchasing piglets both decreased [4][8]. Egg - Price: Spot and futures prices both increased slightly, and the basis strengthened [57][76]. - Supply: The inventory of laying hens remained high. The number of old hens出栏 increased, and the inventory in production and circulation decreased. - Demand: Egg sales increased, and the inventory in each link decreased, but terminal consumption was still in the off - season [58][76]. Corn - Price: The spot price increased slightly, and the futures price decreased slightly. The basis strengthened [82][108]. - Supply: The grain - selling progress in Northeast and North China was slower than last year, and the market supply was tight. - Demand: Deep - processing demand increased, while feed - end procurement was cautious [83][108].