生鲜软商品板块周度策略报告-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar opened high and went high this week, with a weekly increase of 1.42%. The sugar production in India may fall short of expectations, improving the global sugar surplus situation in the 2025/26 season. The new sugar - crushing season in Brazil is approaching, and the weather in Brazil needs to be closely monitored. The continuous conflict in the Middle East may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio, which is positive for the raw sugar price. Although the sugar supply in China is still relatively sufficient, the supply - demand fundamentals are improving [3]. - Pulp: The energy market fluctuates sharply, and pulp is affected to a limited extent, with the market still under pressure. The news of the shutdown of Metsa Fiber's Joutseno factory boosts sentiment, but the market reaction is not significant. The high inventory of coniferous pulp of overseas producers and weak - stable demand in China weaken the positive impact of the production - cut news. The downstream finished paper market is gradually improving after the festival, but the seasonal demand fluctuation has limited positive effects. The potential increase in freight rates and costs may provide support, but the rebound height is not yet clear [3]. - Double - offset paper: After the festival, the operating rate of double - offset paper has rebounded from a low level, but downstream procurement is mainly for rigid demand. The cost support has weakened. In March, the demand enters the peak season due to publisher tenders, but the high total production capacity and low capacity utilization may make it difficult to change the supply - loose situation. It is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term [5][6]. - Apples: The futures price decreased this week as the market's divergence on the value of taking delivery increased, and the bullish sentiment cooled down. The supply side still has medium - term support, but the consumption side lacks continuous impetus. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. The focus of the apple market will shift to consumption realization and new - season weather [7]. - Red dates: The futures price of red dates rebounded after a low - level reduction in positions. The spot inventory is gradually reaching its seasonal peak and then declining. The price of high - quality goods is rising, and the price of ordinary goods is stable. The futures - spot price difference contradiction has been alleviated. The market is waiting for the weather trading theme in the second quarter [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh fruit and nut futures: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to reduce or exit long positions at high prices, with a support range of 9000 - 9200 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500; for Red dates 2605, it is recommended to reduce short positions, with a support range of 8900 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9300 - 9700 [16]. - Soft commodity futures: For Sugar 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions with a light position, with a support range of 5000 - 5330 and a pressure range of 5600 - 5650; for Pulp 2605, it is recommended to short on rallies, with a support range of 5150 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5350 - 5400; for Double - offset paper 2605, it is recommended to conduct range operations, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300 [16]. 3.2 Second Part: Plate Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 9998 | - 318 | - 3.08 | | Red dates 2605 | 9095 | 70 | 0.78 | | Sugar 2605 | 5447 | 76 | 1.42 | | Pulp 2605 | 5272 | - 50 | - 0.94 | | Double - offset paper 2602 | 4230 | - 4 | - 0.09 | [17] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.70 | 0.00 | 0.55 | | Red dates (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5470 | 20 | - 590 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5280 | 0 | - 1300 | [22] 3.3 Third Part: Plate Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of apple, red dates, sugar, and pulp [33][34][35]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spreads of apple, red dates, and sugar [38][40][42]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Red dates | 4027 | 0 | - 1854 | | Sugar | 16342 | 0 | - 11833 | | Pulp | 189232 | 8834 | - 190487 | [43] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - related Data - Option Strategy Recommendation: For Apple 2605, sell out - of - the - money put options; for Red dates 2605, sell deep out - of - the - money call options; for Sugar 2605, sell out - of - the - money put options [43]. - Apple Option Data: There are references to figures such as option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, and historical volatility [45]. - Sugar Option Data: There are references to figures such as option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [46]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Plate Futures Fundamental Situation - Apple: - Production area weather: There are references to figures of minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [49][50][51]. - Export situation: There is a reference to the figure of monthly apple export volume [54]. - Inventory situation: There are references to figures of national apple inventory, and weekly storage inventories in Shandong and Shaanxi [54][56]. - Red dates: There are references to figures of weekly trading volumes in Henan and Hebei, and daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [58]. - Sugar: There are references to figures of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and spot - futures difference [60][61][63]. - Pulp: There are references to figures of domestic 4 - port pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, and production volumes of various types of paper [66][68][70]. - Double - offset paper: There are references to figures of capacity utilization rate, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption volume [79][81].