特朗普TACO失效，铜短期承压回调：沪铜周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, copper prices are under pressure and experiencing a correction due to factors such as the deterioration of the Middle - East situation, the reversal of the global monetary easing expectation, high inventory, and slow start of the peak demand season. It is recommended to wait for market sentiment to stabilize. In the long - term, the outlook for copper is still positive due to factors like tight copper ore supply, the explosion of green copper demand, national strategic resource security premiums, and intensified Sino - US competition. The focus ranges for Shanghai copper are [97500, 103500] yuan/ton, and for London copper are [12500, 13500] US dollars/ton [8][88] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Analysis - Trump's TACO fails, the Middle - East situation deteriorates, and oil prices soar again. The US non - farm employment data is weak, inflation concerns intensify, and the global monetary easing expectation is reversed. The US dollar index breaks through the 100 mark. The US launches a 301 trade investigation again, and China and the US start the sixth round of trade negotiations. The domestic two - sessions end, and the start of the peak demand season is delayed [8][19][20] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - Copper ore supply: Iran is not a core copper concentrate producer. Chile's Codelco's El Teniente mine has low production due to an accident, and Peruvian mines face production suspension risks. Glencore's Australian smelter may go on strike. In February 2026, China imported 2310000 physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a 11.97% decrease from the previous month and a 5.84% increase year - on - year [47] - Copper concentrate processing fees: The copper concentrate TC is at a low level, with the latest at - 57.2 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.2 US dollars/ton from the previous month. The copper concentrate spot smelting is at a loss of 2599.76 yuan/ton, while the long - term contract smelting has a profit of 244.79 yuan/ton [48] - Electrolytic copper production: In February 2026, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1424 million tons, a decrease of 36900 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 3.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase by 52800 tons to 1.1952 million tons in March [49] 3.2.2 Demand - Traditional fields: The real estate new construction area shows no improvement, and orders for copper tubes and copper wires have decreased by 30% year - on - year. The home appliance industry is cautious in production scheduling. The power grid investment is expected to contribute an incremental demand of over 300000 tons [53][54] - Emerging fields: The growth rate of new energy vehicle sales has slowed down. The AI data center has become a new growth point, but its total proportion is still small [53][54] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of March 12, the domestic copper social inventory was 573900 tons, with a cumulative increase of 1700 tons from the previous month. The SHFE copper inventory was 433400 tons, a increase of 8313 tons from the previous month. The LME copper inventory increased to 311800 tons, a increase of 27500 tons from the previous month. The COMEX copper inventory was 592200 tons, a decrease of 5695 tons from the previous month [55] 3.3 Market Performance - Price performance: As of March 13, the latest price of LME copper was 12870 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.01% and an annual increase of 3.00%. The COMEX copper main contract was 580 US dollars, with a weekly decrease of 0.66% and an annual increase of 1.84%. The Shanghai copper main contract was 100310 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 0.73% and an annual increase of 2.11% [28] - Price difference and basis: As of March 12, the COMEX - LME copper price difference was - 119 US dollars/ton. The LME copper spot (0 - 3) was at a discount of 102.11 US dollars/ton, and (3 - 15) was at a discount of 149.63 US dollars/ton. As of March 13, the domestic electrolytic copper spot in South China had a premium of 100 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai had a premium of 70 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was 40 - 50 US dollars/ton [29] - Speculation and positions: As of March 6, the net long position of LME copper speculative funds was 28612 lots, a decrease of 29% from the previous month. The net long position of COMEX copper speculation was 57681 lots, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month. As of March 13, the position of the Shanghai copper main contract was 190911 lots (- 2.44%), and the trading volume was 85149 lots (- 32.97%) [29]