终端需求旺季，碳酸锂逢低做多：碳酸锂周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of "buying on dips" for lithium carbonate [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance. With downstream industries entering the peak season, there is a replenishment demand, and the total inventory has fallen below 100,000 tons. Considering factors such as the resumption of production of domestic lithium salt plants and potential changes in overseas lithium ore policies, it is advisable to buy lithium carbonate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Overview - China's imports from January to February increased by 17.1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 19.2% year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival, the CPI rose by 1.0% month - on - month and 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI rose by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 0.9% year - on - year with the decline narrowing. The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5% - 5%, and the central bank will maintain moderately loose monetary policy and sufficient liquidity. In the US, the February CPI rose by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. The non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, increasing spill - over risks and reducing investors' risk appetite [3] 3.2 Supply Side - This week, the output of lithium carbonate increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by lithium extraction from spodumene. Salt lakes have not yet entered the seasonal production peak. Lithium salt plants are actively purchasing raw materials, and domestic supply capacity is gradually recovering [3] 3.3 Demand Side - In February, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in China were 464,000 units, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. From January to February, the cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.06 million units, a year - on - year decline of 25.7%. In the 10th week of 2026, the weekly orders of major new energy vehicle brands increased by 96% on average week - on - week, showing a strong rebound [4] 3.4 Cost and Profit - This week, the prices of lithium ore remained relatively stable. The price of African SC 5% lithium ore was $1,830 per ton, up $60 from last week. The CIF price of Australian 6% spodumene was $2,160 per ton, unchanged from last week. The market price of lithium mica was 6,600 yuan per ton, also unchanged from last week. The profit of the lithium carbonate industry was 31,507 yuan per ton, a decrease of 234 yuan week - on - week [4] 3.5 Total Inventory - As of March 12, the total inventory of lithium carbonate was 98,959 tons, a decrease of 414 tons from last week. The inventory of upstream smelters was 16,292 tons, a decrease of 1,184 tons week - on - week [4] 3.6 Market Review - As of March 13, LC2605 was reported at 152,080 yuan per ton, a 2.6% decline from last week. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 158,000 yuan per ton, a 1.94% increase from last week. The basis changed from a discount to a premium, and the open interest of the main contract was 320,000. The main contract fluctuated widely in the range of 150,000 - 160,000 yuan per ton this week. Due to geopolitical conflicts, funds favored the chemical and crude oil sectors, and the non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and lithium carbonate sectors were under pressure. However, the fundamentals remained in a tight - balance state, with the total inventory decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. In mid - to late March, the peak season will arrive, and downstream industries with high operating rates have a rigid demand for lithium carbonate [7] 3.7 Production Status - As of March 13, the output of lithium carbonate was 23,720 tons, an increase of 720 tons from last week. The enterprise operating rate was 51.51%, an increase of 1.56 percentage points from last week. The output of lithium iron phosphate was 113,409 tons, an increase of 625 tons from last week, and the enterprise operating rate was 88.52%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points from last week [9][12] 3.8 Downstream Inventory - As of March 13, the total inventory of the lithium iron phosphate industry was 27,731 tons, a decrease of 701 tons from last week. The inventory of the ternary material, manganese - acid lithium, cobalt - acid lithium, and ternary precursor industries changed little, and the overall inventory level was low [34] 3.9 Cost - end Situation - As of March 13, the cost of lithium carbonate production was 124,785 yuan per ton, a decrease of 44 yuan from last week. The cost of lithium iron phosphate production was 54,913 yuan per ton, an increase of 1,125 yuan from last week [48][51]