铜周报：库存维持高位，宏观扰动下铜价承压-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Overall, copper prices are under pressure [5]. - The supply - side shows that the shortage at the mine end persists, and the spot TC of copper concentrates has hit a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was seasonally low, and it is expected to increase in March. On the demand side, the decline in copper prices has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined copper rods, and the copper foil industry has maintained a high start - up rate. The inventory situation is that the accumulation of domestic copper inventories has slowed down, LME inventories continue to accumulate, and COMEX inventories continue to decline. Considering the geopolitical situation and inventory levels, copper prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategies 3.1.1 Last Week's Market Review - Last week, Shanghai copper showed a weak and volatile trend. As of March 13, it closed at 100,310 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.73%. The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired, and the spot processing fee for copper concentrates continues to remain at a historical low. In March, production may reach a record high. The decline in copper prices led to an increase in new orders from downstream and an increase in production starts. The accumulation of domestic copper inventories slowed down but remained at a high level. The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices [5]. 3.1.2 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [9][30]. - Demand: In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [9][33]. - Inventory: As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [10][36]. 3.1.3 Strategy Suggestions - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran has led to a continuous rise in crude oil, increasing global inflation expectations, reducing market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, and the strengthening of the US dollar index has suppressed copper prices. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern of mines continues, and the spot TC in the copper concentrate market has fallen slightly to - 60.02 US dollars/ton, remaining at a low level. Domestic post - holiday consumption has exceeded market expectations, and inventory decline has occurred earlier than expected. Downstream enterprise demand continues to recover, and there is still room for improvement in subsequent demand. However, high overseas inventories have further suppressed market sentiment. It is necessary to closely monitor the duration of the Middle East war and the progress of inventory reduction. If the Iran conflict continues and crude oil prices rise further, copper prices may face a downward risk, and it is expected that copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market and Positioning Situation 3.2.1 Premium and Discount - Shanghai copper is in a contango structure. The decline in copper prices during the week stimulated the recovery of demand, and the spot discount of Shanghai copper continued to rise. Subsequently, the delivery logic dominated the market, and the spot of Shanghai copper maintained a premium. Currently, the LME copper inventory has increased significantly, the LME 0 - 3 discount has widened, and the New York copper spread has reversed [17]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of March 13, the trading volume of Shanghai copper futures was 190,911 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2.44%; the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper during the week was 111,932 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 28.42%. As of March 6, the net long position of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions was - 1,386.08 lots, a week - on - week increase of 65.35%. As of March 10, the net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions was 47,676 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 1.69% [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply - side - The shortage at the mine end has not been substantially repaired. As of March 13, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.17%. The spot smelting fee for copper concentrates was - 60.02 US dollars/ton, hitting a new historical low. The supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is relatively abundant, and the domestic blister copper processing fee is at a multi - year high. The electrolytic copper production in February was 1.1424 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13% and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. It is expected to increase in March [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Start - up - In February, the start - up rates of copper foil, copper strip and copper rod were 88.56%, 41.98% and 22.78% respectively. The start - up rate of the copper foil industry was much higher than the same period in previous years. From March 6th to March 12th, the start - up rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises was 72.92%, a month - on - month increase of 10.45 percentage points. After the sharp decline in copper prices, the daily new order volume increased exponentially [33]. 3.3.3 Inventory - As of March 13, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.96%. As of March 12, the copper inventory in the mainstream areas of the country was 573,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.57% compared with March 5th. As of March 13, the LME copper inventory was 311,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.67%, and the COMEX copper inventory was 591,600 short tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.05% [36].