长江期货贵金属周报：降息预期延后，价格延续调整-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The ongoing war between the US and Iran, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, has led to rising oil prices, an increase in inflation expectations, and a delay in interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Due to the ongoing war between the US and Israel against Iran and Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have risen, inflation expectations have increased, interest - rate cut expectations have been postponed, and gold and silver prices have corrected. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5023 per ounce, down 3.1% for the week, with an upper resistance level of $5200 and a lower support level of $4900. The US silver closed at $80.7 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 4.8%, a lower support level of $77, and an upper resistance level of $86 [7][10] 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, leading to rising oil prices, increased inflation expectations, and postponed interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January meeting kept interest rates unchanged, and the US employment situation has slowed. The market expects the interest - rate cut to be postponed to September, with a more hawkish stance on interest - rate cut expectations. The US economic data is trending weaker, and concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence remain. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends continue. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are expected to rise. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, suggesting support for their prices. Attention should be paid to the Fed's March interest - rate decision. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and watch and trade cautiously [12][14] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The document presents multiple charts related to overseas macroeconomic indicators, including the US dollar index, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), exchange rates (euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar), US Treasury yields (10 - year, 2 - year, inflation - indexed Treasury bonds), interest rate spreads (10Y - 2Y), the Fed's balance - sheet size and its weekly changes, the gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [16][19][23] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February CPI annual rate unadjusted was 2.4%, in line with expectations and the previous value. The US January PCE price index annual rate was 2.8%, lower than the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 2.9% [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - Iran's new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei said on Thursday that Iran will continue to fight and use the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining chip to pressure the US and Israel. The US Treasury Secretary said that the US Navy may, when military conditions allow, jointly with an international coalition, provide escort for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The US February inflation and core inflation met expectations and were flat compared to the previous value. The February CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year (previous value 2.4%, expected 2.4%), and 0.3% month - on - month (previous value 0.2%, expected 0.3%); the core CPI was 2.5% year - on - year (previous value 2.5%, expected 2.5%), and increased 0.2% month - on - month (previous value 0.3%, expected 0.2%) [26] 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 16,494.69 kg to 1,012,467.51 kg, and the SHFE gold inventory increased by 384 kg to 105,417 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 230,871.51 kg to 10,628,787.83 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory increased by 70,614 kg to 326,566 kg [14][30] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 10, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 165,679 contracts, an increase of 5,788 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 23,736 contracts, an increase of 1,062 contracts from last week [14][34] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 18, at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate will be released. On Thursday, March 19, at 02:00, the Fed's March interest - rate decision will be announced, and at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 14 will be released [36]