甲醇周报：进口明显缩减，利好逐步兑现-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran was the main factor boosting methanol. Methanol futures continued to rise significantly, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,763 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, an 8.01% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - The domestic methanol supply is still under pressure, with production slightly decreasing and the operating rate remaining high. The downstream olefin operating rate is stable and improving, and other main downstream sectors have also improved. However, due to the sharp rise in methanol prices, downstream demand has decreased [8]. - The inventory of methanol sample enterprises and the volume of orders to be delivered have both decreased, indicating a recovery in downstream demand after the Spring Festival. The port methanol inventory has significantly decreased, and the reduction in methanol imports due to the US - Iran conflict has gradually realized the expected benefits [8]. - The profit of methanol enterprises has significantly improved. The cost support of raw material thermal coal is weak, while the price of methanol has risen significantly, and the profitability of various production processes has improved [28]. - The future trend of methanol depends on the geopolitical situation, especially the navigation issue of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as the navigation problem is not solved, crude oil and methanol will continue to be boosted [9]. - In the short - term, methanol is likely to continue to be strong, and long - position operations in methanol futures and buying methanol call options can be considered [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, affected by the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, methanol futures continued to rise significantly. The methanol weighted closed at 2,763 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, an 8.01% increase from the previous week [6][13]. - Spot: In the port market, the arrival volume of foreign vessels decreased, and the port methanol inventory entered the destocking channel. The port methanol market fluctuated widely at a high level. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2,460 to 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2,500 to 3,000 yuan/ton. In the inland market, the price rose significantly, driven by geopolitical emotions and supported by factors such as enterprise destocking, downstream demand recovery, etc. The price in the main production area of Ordos North Line ranged from 2,003 to 2,185 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2,325 to 2,730 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260306 - 0312), China's methanol production was 2,013,855 tons, a decrease of 3,610 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a 0.18% decrease from the previous week [14]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of March 12, the olefin operating rate was stable with a slight decline in some areas; the operating rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, chlorides, and formaldehyde all increased to varying degrees [18]. - Inventory: As of March 11, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 523,100 tons, a decrease of 29,300 tons from the previous period, a 5.30% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 265,300 tons, a decrease of 29,800 tons from the previous period, a 10.10% decrease. The port sample inventory was 1,312,800 tons, a decrease of 130,700 tons from the previous period, a 9.05% decrease [20][23]. - Profit: Last week (20260306 - 0312), the cost support of raw material thermal coal was weak, while the price of methanol rose significantly. The profitability of various production processes improved. For example, the weekly average profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 34.60 yuan/ton, a 118.69% increase from the previous period [28]. 3.3 Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: Next week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0267 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 90.72%, with an increase in production [30]. - Downstream Demand: The olefin operating rate is expected to be stable; the dimethyl ether and formaldehyde supply is expected to increase, and the capacity utilization rate may rise; the glacial acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to be flat; the chloride capacity utilization rate is expected to have little change [31][32][34]. - Inventory: It is expected that the inland factories and ports will continue to destock. The arrival volume of foreign vessels at the port is still low, and the port inventory may continue to decline [34]. - Overall: The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol have not improved significantly. The support mainly comes from the geopolitical tension. The subsequent trend of methanol needs to closely follow the guidance of geopolitics and crude oil [34].