成本与补库双驱动，双焦短期偏强震荡：中辉期货双焦周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, all black - series commodities rose, with raw material prices outperforming finished products. The weekly increase of the iron ore main contract was 5.1%, coking coal 4.9%, and coke 2.5%. The domestic coal mine production has recovered to the pre - holiday level, and the online auction transaction rate has remained high recently. Downstream replenishment and speculative demand have increased. In the short term, the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the coming week, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high points [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - Black - series commodities all rose this week, with raw material price performance stronger than that of finished products. The iron ore main contract rose 5.1% weekly, coking coal 4.9%, and coke 2.5%. Domestically, coal mine production has returned to pre - holiday levels, online auction transaction rates remain high, and downstream replenishment and speculative demand have increased [4]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market 3.2.1 Coking Coal Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different varieties of coking coal have different warehouse receipt costs in different locations. For example, on March 13, 2026, the warehouse receipt cost of Meng 5 in Tangshan was 1163 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 1390 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2.2 Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, one - month average, and seasonality of different contracts are different. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 188, with a weekly change of - 50 and a basis rate of - 15.98% [15]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Supply - Mine: This week, the daily average output of raw coal from 523 mines was 1.9361 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 107,500 tons; the daily average output of clean coal was 777,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,200 tons [22]. - Coal Washery: The daily average output of sample coal washeries was 230,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31,800 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week increase of 4.43% [25]. 3.2.4 Coking Coal Import - In 2025, China's cumulative coking coal imports decreased by 2.7% year - on - year. In December 2025, the import volume from Mongolia increased by 7.6% month - on - month and 59.1% year - on - year [26][29]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal Auction Data - From February 27 to March 6, 2026, the coking coal listing volume decreased by 529,200 tons week - on - week to 1.4653 million tons, the transaction rate decreased by 4.79 percentage points to 77.14%, and the non - transaction rate increased by 4.79 percentage points to 22.86% [32]. 3.3 Coke Market 3.3.1 Coke Warehouse Receipt Cost - Different varieties of coke have different warehouse receipt costs in different locations. For example, on March 12, 2026, the warehouse receipt cost of Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke was 1726 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 1470 yuan/ton [42]. 3.3.2 Coking Profit - As of March 13, 2026, the national coking profit was - 3 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan. Profits in different regions also showed a downward trend [44]. 3.3.3 Basis - The basis, weekly change, basis rate, one - month average, and seasonality of different coke contracts are different. For example, the basis of the January contract was - 280, with a weekly change of - 56 and a basis rate of - 19.07% [48]. 3.3.4 Coke Supply - Not detailed enough in the content 3.3.5 Coke Demand - Not detailed enough in the content 3.3.6 Coke Total Inventory and Distribution - As of March 13, 2026, the total coke inventory decreased slightly week - on - week. The inventory of steel mills increased by 162,900 tons to 6.8755 million tons, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 98,700 tons to 1.0043 million tons, and the inventory of ports decreased by 67,300 tons to 1.9638 million tons [60].