地缘形势反复，金银陷入震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market last week was influenced by complex factors including geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data, and inflation concerns. Gold and silver prices were volatile and remained in a range, with geopolitical tensions and inflation fears being the main drivers [4]. - The US economy showed signs of slowdown in GDP growth, a cooling labor market, and relatively stable inflation. The Federal Reserve stopped quantitative tightening and initiated a technical quantitative easing [22][28][36]. - The global gold supply increased slightly in 2025, while demand reached a record high, driven by investment and central bank purchases. The silver market had a supply - demand gap, but the gap was expected to narrow in 2025 [40][52]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Comprehensive Analysis: The precious metals market was affected by geopolitical risks, macroeconomic data, and inflation concerns. Gold and silver prices were volatile, with London gold closing at $5017.7 per ounce (down 2.95% weekly) and London silver at $80.5 per ounce (down 4.5% weekly). Domestic gold and silver futures also declined [4]. - Strategy Recommendations: Conservative investors should wait for the geopolitical situation to become clear, while aggressive investors can trade based on the range - bound market. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5][6]. Chapter 2: Macroeconomic Data Tracking - US Economy - GDP: The US fourth - quarter real GDP annualized quarterly growth rate slowed significantly, mainly due to the government shutdown. Consumer spending growth slowed, investment was divided, and retail sales declined in January [22]. - US Economy - Employment: The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The private sector and manufacturing jobs decreased, and the healthcare industry was the main drag [28]. - US Economy - Inflation: The US February CPI and core CPI were in line with expectations. Energy and food prices pushed up the overall CPI, while core inflation showed some stickiness and differentiation. The impact of the Middle East geopolitical conflict on energy prices needs to be observed [33]. - Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve stopped quantitative tightening and initiated a technical quantitative easing to stabilize the balance sheet and avoid liquidity problems [36]. Chapter 3: Precious Metals Fundamental Data Tracking - Gold - Global Supply and Demand: In 2025, the global gold supply increased by 0.6% to 5002 tons, and demand increased by 7.8% to 4999.4 tons. Investment and central bank purchases were the main drivers of demand growth [40]. - Central Bank Gold Purchases: Since 2022, global central banks have been actively buying gold. China, Poland, Turkey, and India are among the active buyers for various reasons such as optimizing foreign exchange reserves and hedging risks [50]. - Silver - World Supply and Demand Balance: The global silver supply in 2024 was 31,573 tons (up 2% year - on - year), and demand was 36,208 tons (down 3% year - on - year), with a supply - demand gap of 4634 tons. In 2025, the supply is expected to increase by 2%, and the gap is expected to narrow to 3658 tons [52]. - Silver Inventory: LBMA inventory decreased in 2022 - 2024. In 2025, due to various factors, the inventory situation changed, and the overall supply shortage situation has not been reversed. The domestic silver supply and demand situation is still tense [59]. - Silver ETF Demand and Supply - Demand Observation: The global silver ETF total holdings are generally at a high level, but have declined recently. The overseas silver lease rate has eased, while domestic demand is strong. However, there is a "reflexivity" risk between silver prices and ETF demand [60][62].