裕元集团点评报告：制造单价逆势向上，零售期待修复

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of $8.03 billion for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of $380 million, down 2.9% year-on-year. The manufacturing segment generated $5.65 billion in revenue, up 0.5% year-on-year, while the retail segment saw revenue decline to $2.38 billion, down 7.0% year-on-year [1][5] - The manufacturing business's average selling price (ASP) increased by 3.7% to $21.0, despite a slight decrease in shipment volume by 1.2% to 250 million pairs. The cautious ordering behavior from downstream brands due to tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties contributed to this decline [2][3] - The manufacturing gross margin decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 18.2%, primarily due to uneven capacity utilization and rising labor costs. However, the net profit margin for the manufacturing segment improved by 0.1 percentage points to 6.4% due to tax dispute reversals [3] - The retail segment faced challenges, with a 7.0% decline in revenue to $2.38 billion. Offline store sales were pressured by a 4.0% reduction in store count and double-digit same-store sales declines, while online retail showed resilience with over 30% revenue contribution [4] - The company is expected to see revenue growth in the coming years, with projections of $8.14 billion, $8.56 billion, and $9.01 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 5.1%, and 5.3% [5][13] Summary by Sections Manufacturing Business - Revenue for the manufacturing segment was $5.65 billion, with a slight increase in ASP and a decrease in shipment volume [1][2] - The gross margin was impacted by uneven capacity utilization and rising costs, but net profit margin showed slight improvement [3] Retail Business - Retail revenue decreased to $2.38 billion, with offline sales underperforming while online sales remained strong [4] - The retail environment is expected to stabilize, with early signs of recovery in 2026 [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of $8.14 billion, $8.56 billion, and $9.01 billion from 2026 to 2028, with corresponding net profits of $384 million, $415 million, and $450 million [5][13]