流动性周报20260315：存单新低和30年新高-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CD rate dropped rapidly after the self - regulatory new rule "patch" and hit a record low, but the new low is more a result of trading games rather than the impact of inter - bank self - regulation. The reasonable pricing range of 1 - year national and joint - stock CD rates is still 1.55% - 1.6%, and a rate below 1.55% is too low relative to the current policy rate [8][10][11]. - The decisive factor for the subsequent trend of CD rates is the issuance demand of CDs, and the contraction of repurchase under agreement needs attention [13]. - The 30 - year Treasury bond valuation yield reached a new high since Q4 2024, and inflation expectations and supply pressure are the two main factors pressuring the long - end. The 10 - year Treasury bond is in a volatile state, and varieties above 1.8% are attractive to allocation funds, with little risk of a significant upward movement. The 30 - year Treasury bond is in a relatively weak state [16][18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 "1. CD New Low and 30 - year High" - CD New Low - After the self - regulatory new rule "patch", the CD rate dropped rapidly. The secondary trading rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs fell to around 1.53%, breaking the previous record of 1.54% [8]. - The impact of the inter - bank self - regulatory "patch" on short - end pricing is judged to be limited. The new low of the CD rate is mainly due to trading games. The opportunity cost of empty positions or short - duration positions is high, so investors increase their allocation of CDs after the new rule is implemented, resulting in a decline in CD rates [10][11]. - The reasonable pricing range of 1 - year national and joint - stock CD rates is 1.55% - 1.6%, and a rate below 1.55% is too low relative to the current policy rate [10][11]. - The subsequent trend of CD rates depends on the issuance demand of banks. The contraction of repurchase under agreement may affect banks' CD issuance demand [13][14]. - 30 - year High - The 30 - year Treasury bond valuation yield reached a new high since Q4 2024, reaching 2.37%. The long - end is under pressure due to inflation expectations and supply pressure. Inflation expectations are strong, and the supply pressure is mainly concentrated in the ultra - long - term. The 30 - year Treasury bond is in a relatively weak state, while the 10 - year Treasury bond is in a volatile state, and varieties above 1.8% are attractive to allocation funds [16][18].