格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260316

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply. Some urea production plants in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, leading to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, and currently, the upstream factories have little pressure. The weekend export was urgently stopped, and reserve supplies are expected to be put on the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate in the range of 1820 - 1960 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see for the time being [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 dropped by 10 yuan to 1889 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the central - China mainstream area rose by 10 yuan to 1870 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 6813 lots to 274,000 lots, and short positions increased by 3153 lots to 315,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 221,200 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared with the previous working day and an increase of 298,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The operating rate is 93.95%, an increase of 8.88% compared with 85.07% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 12.79%. The sample inventory of urea ports is 189,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.2% [1] - India's RCF urea import tender: The latest shipping date is March 31. It received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 US dollars/ton, and the lowest offer on the west coast is CFR508 US dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - Import and export in December 2025: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - International oil prices: Due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the possible increase of US military forces, supply risks are increasing. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 04 rose 2.98 US dollars/barrel to 98.71 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 05 rose 2.68 US dollars/barrel to 103.14 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. China's INE crude oil futures contract 2605 rose 39.9 to 754.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 35 to 789.5 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unclear, and international crude oil fluctuates sharply. Some urea production plants in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, leading to a sharp increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, and currently, the upstream factories have little pressure. The weekend export was urgently stopped, and reserve supplies are expected to be put on the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate in the range of 1820 - 1960 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]