2026年3-5月信用债市场展望：从降久期到控久期，从守势到出击

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry The report does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction has switched, and the balance of asset allocation continues. Bonds have entered a "sell on every rally" time window, and the interest rate curve is steepening [39][43]. - Pay attention to the potential impact of supply - demand pattern changes on the credit bond market. In the second quarter, focus on the potential incremental demand for credit bonds [3][45]. - Currently, the valuation of credit bonds may not be highly cost - effective, but the potential adjustment pressure is relatively controllable. Credit bonds will follow the adjustment rather than over - adjust [4][162]. - The credit strategy is to shift from reducing duration to controlling duration and from a defensive to an offensive stance [4][193]. 3. Summary by Directory 2026 Market Review - Primary Market: In 2026Q1 (as of March 15), the issuance and net supply of traditional credit bonds decreased quarter - on - quarter. Bank secondary perpetual bonds had no new issuance, and net financing turned negative. For traditional credit bonds, the issuance and net financing were 2428.1 billion yuan and 773.5 billion yuan respectively, with a slight decrease in net supply. For bank secondary perpetual bonds, there was no new issuance, 4.76 billion yuan of maturities, and negative net financing [8][15][31]. - Secondary Market: In Q1, credit bond yields declined across the board, and credit spreads mostly narrowed. In January, credit bonds strengthened; in February, the market oscillated; since March, the bond market has weakened, but credit bonds have shown resilience. Yields of various maturities decreased, and credit spreads mostly narrowed, with short - term secondary perpetual bonds having the largest narrowing amplitude [18][19][31]. 2026 March - May Market Outlook - Bond Market Transition: The core contradiction in the bond market has switched. Bonds have entered a "sell on every rally" time window, and the interest rate curve is steepening. The 10 - year Treasury yield may range from 1.77% to 1.95%, with a possibility of breaking above 1.9%. It is recommended to be cautious about long - term and ultra - long - term assets [39][43]. - Supply - Demand Pattern: - Supply: For general credit bonds, urban investment bonds have net inflows, and industrial bond supply remains strong. For financial bonds, there has been no new issuance of secondary perpetual bonds this year, and the supply of ordinary securities firm bonds has increased, but these extreme structural features are not sustainable [67][76][224]. - Demand: - Wealth Management: The scale was stable in Q1, with seasonal balance - sheet return pressure in March. The scale is expected to grow seasonally in Q2, and the demand is mainly for medium - and short - term bonds [82]. - Funds: The scale and structure of amortized cost bond funds are changing. Pay attention to the potential increment of "fixed - income +" funds, and credit bond ETFs may still have an impulse to increase volume at the end of the quarter [86][101][129]. - Insurance: The proportion of dividend - paying insurance in the insurance liability side has increased, and the demand for long - term bonds has decreased. The direct investment in credit bonds is strong, but the buying power has weakened marginally [138][141]. - Other Potential Changes: The credit spreads of ultra - long - term credit bonds with maturities over 5 years have declined, but the trading desks are still cautious. The optimization of inter - bank rules promotes the launch of science and technology innovation bond indices and index products, and there are potential opportunities in inter - bank science and technology innovation bonds [144][148][159]. - Valuation and Adjustment Pressure: Currently, the valuation of credit bonds may not be highly cost - effective, but the potential adjustment pressure is relatively controllable. Historically, when long - term interest rates rise and the 10 - 1Y term spread widens, credit spreads do not necessarily widen. In March, spreads may oscillate weakly, and there may be market opportunities from April to May [162][178][185]. - Credit Strategy: - General Strategy: In March, gradually switch from medium - term (3 - 5 years) to medium - and short - term (around 3 years) bonds, and from high - elasticity, low - safety - cushion varieties to low - elasticity, certain - safety - cushion varieties. Actively seize potential credit market opportunities from April to May while keeping the duration in check [193]. - Urban Investment Bonds: For bonds with a maturity of less than 3 years, increase returns through credit enhancement; for bonds with a maturity of more than 3 years, increase positions on dips [197][201][203]. - Industrial Bonds: Control the duration and focus on carry trades [207][212][213]. - Bank Secondary Perpetual Bonds: Generally, be cautious and wait and see. Pay attention to the participation opportunities of medium - and short - term secondary perpetual bonds of small and medium - sized banks [220][223].