债市如何应对提前到来的通胀冲击

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply - side inflation pressure won't change the overall mid - term trend of the bond market. But for long - term interest rates to return to the downward range, the market needs to reach a consensus that inflation won't affect the monetary policy orientation, with the most direct sign being the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. Currently, the bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration for further observation. The risks of medium - short - term and credit bonds are relatively limited [9][77]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs PPI earliest to turn positive in March, CPI peak may be in May under the benchmark assumption - This week, the bond market adjusted, and the yield curve steepened significantly. The sharp rise in oil prices and the unexpectedly high February CPI and PPI data led to a significant adjustment in long - term interest rates. The February inflation increase was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor. The CPI increase was almost entirely contributed by food, transportation and communication, and education, culture and entertainment. After the Spring Festival, the prices of agricultural products declined, and without considering oil prices, the February CPI increase was not sustainable. The February PPI decline narrowed, mainly driven by the non - ferrous and petrochemical industries, and the transmission of commodity price increases to the downstream was still not smooth [2][13][14]. - Two scenarios for the future development of the Iranian situation were assumed. In both scenarios, PPI is expected to return to around 0 in March, with the peak likely to appear around June. For CPI, under scenario 1, the peak may occur in May, and under scenario 2, the peak may approach 2.5% [25][27]. Inflation's impact on the bond market needs to be transmitted through monetary policy. Currently, for long - term interest rates to return to the downward trend, more explicit monetary policy is needed - Historically, inflation's impact on the bond market needs to be transmitted through monetary policy. In China, low inflation has been a problem for monetary policy, and inflation is not a short - term constraint on monetary easing. In 2019 and 2021, high CPI and PPI did not prevent the central bank from implementing easing policies [30]. - Recently, the central bank's attitude has shown some marginal changes. It no longer mentions that the alleviation of bank interest margin pressure creates space for interest rate cuts, and the Financial Times no longer mentions the possibility of total - volume tools cooperating with wide - fiscal policies. Although the central bank is unlikely to tighten liquidity in the short term, long - term interest rates need more explicit monetary policy signals to decline further [33][35][36]. Wait for the market trading focus to shift from growth to stagnation - The strong export in January - February was affected by the Spring Festival factor. Even after excluding this factor, the export growth rate was still at a relatively strong level of 13%. The strong export was related to the systematic increase in exports of industries such as integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships, as well as price factors. However, domestic demand was relatively weak, with low growth rates in fixed - asset investment and consumer retail [38][44][46]. - The February financial data showed that the new social financing was higher than the same period last year, but the new RMB credit decreased year - on - year. Although the year - on - year increase in corporate medium - and long - term loans brought expectations of economic activity recovery, it was also affected by the Spring Festival factor. The decline in non - bank loans and bill financing may reflect the regulatory authorities' reduced demand for credit impulse [49][54]. - If oil prices remain high, it may suppress the transmission of upstream price increases and squeeze the profits of downstream enterprises, and the impact on the overseas economy may also reduce the support of overseas demand for the domestic economy. The impact of the current supply shock may be greater than that in 2022 [60][61][62]. After the pre - emptive action, the certificate of deposit interest rate needs a decline in non - bank financing costs to cooperate - The news of stricter inter - bank current deposit self - regulation led to a significant decline in short - term interest rates. However, the decline in the certificate of deposit interest rate last week may have reflected the pre - emptive action of some non - bank institutions. The central level of the certificate of deposit interest rate needs to be compared with the actual non - bank financing cost [66]. - After the self - regulation becomes stricter, the average interest rate of non - bank inter - bank current deposits may be slightly higher than 1.4%, and the lower limit of the actual non - bank fund lending price may be around 1.45%. The central level of the 1 - year certificate of deposit interest rate can further decline only if the non - bank financing cost decreases, which can be observed through the change in the non - bank institution's lending volume [68]. How the bond market should respond to the early - arriving inflation shock - The supply - side inflation pressure won't change the overall mid - term trend of the bond market. For long - term interest rates to return to the downward range, the market needs to reach a consensus that inflation won't affect the monetary policy orientation. Currently, the bond market may remain in a volatile pattern, and it is recommended to maintain a neutral duration for further observation. There may be trading opportunities in the long - term after the continuous adjustment this week, but it is necessary to enter and exit quickly and stop profit in a timely manner. The risks of medium - short - term and credit bonds are relatively limited [77].