20260314棉系周报：内外因素共同作用，郑棉短期迎震荡调整-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton market is expected to experience short - term wide - range oscillations due to the combined influence of internal and external factors, with the market still slightly favoring a bullish trend, but waiting for the implementation of supply - side realities and further industrial policy guidance [3]. - The USDA's March supply - demand balance sheet is overall slightly bearish, with global production increasing, consumption decreasing, and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio rising [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - China's CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in the past three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [3]. - The US will launch two new trade investigations on the "excess industrial capacity" of 16 major trading partners including China, which may lead to new tariffs. China opposes such political manipulation, and the EU will respond firmly if the US violates trade agreements [3]. 2. Supply International - In the US, the new cotton inspection is basically completed, the CCC inventory has significantly decreased, and the non - commercial positions in CFTC have reduced short positions. In Brazil, the new - season cotton planting is basically completed, and mainstream institutions predict a year - on - year decrease in production, with a 10% decrease being more in line with market expectations. In Australia, the 2025/26 annual planting area and output are estimated [3]. Domestic - As of the end of March, attention should be paid to the impact of the new round of target price subsidy policy on new - season production capacity. If the subsidy remains at the current level, it may be difficult for production to decline significantly in the 26/27 season, which may limit the subsequent upward potential. The BCO and USDA have estimated the 26/27 production at 724 and 725 million tons respectively. The import volume in the first quarter may limit inventory reduction. There are rumors that the National Development and Reform Commission will issue an additional 300,000 tons of sliding - scale duty - added trade quotas, which may relieve short - term supply - demand pressure but is unlikely to change the long - term supply - demand outlook [3]. 3. Inventory - Nationally, the commercial inventory removal has accelerated slightly this week but is still lower than the peak - season performance of the same period, and the year - on - year pressure has increased slightly. Terminal clothing inventory is generally at a low level and continued to decline from January to February. The yarn and cloth inventories of sample enterprises decreased in February, but the yarn inventory removal was relatively weak. Overall, the recent inventory performance is relatively neutral, and with the high internal - external price difference, the import of cotton is expected to increase, and inventory reduction is unlikely to exceed expectations in the short term without significant demand growth [3]. 4. Demand International - In the US, retail sales increased by 6% from January to February, with clothing sales leading the growth at 11.05%. However, clothing imports in January decreased significantly by 17% year - on - year, which may have improved inventory removal in January compared to December. The US consumer confidence increased slightly from January to February but is still lower than the same period last year. The EU's consumer confidence index rebounded slightly in January but stagnated in February. In December, the total amount of clothing imports increased month - on - month, but China's share decreased. In Southeast Asia, Vietnam's textile and clothing exports continued to decline seasonally in February but were still the second - highest in the past five years [3]. Domestic - The resumption of work in downstream enterprises has slowed down significantly, and the operating rates of downstream yarn, cloth, and printing and dyeing enterprises have basically returned to the same - period level. In terms of profit, the downstream yarn price has increased slightly recently, and the profit of enterprises has rebounded from the bottom in the past week but is still in a loss state. The high - cost - performance foreign cotton may squeeze the domestic cotton market. The overseas inventory - replenishment narrative has not yet materialized, facing uncertainties due to trade policies and slow inventory removal, but the marginal negative impact is limited [3]. 5. USDA Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (March) - Globally, production increased by 246,000 tons to 26.34 million tons (mainly due to the increase in production in Brazil and China), consumption decreased by 139,000 tons to 17.216 million tons (mainly due to the decrease in production in countries such as Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam), and the global inventory - to - consumption ratio increased by 1.15% to 64.4%. - In the US, there were no adjustments for the 2025/26 season. - In China, the 2025/26 production increased by 109,000 tons to 7.728 million tons, consumption increased by 109,000 tons to 8.599 million tons, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased by 1.18% to 92.05% [4]. 6. Domestic Supply - Sales have slightly accelerated, and the BCO has further lowered the production forecast. As of this week, the national new cotton inspection volume has exceeded 7.53 million tons, and the sales progress has reached 71.9%, an increase of 2.4% from last week. The 2026 Xinjiang cotton sowing will start in late March, with plans to reduce the planting area in some areas, but implementation faces challenges. The BCO has slightly lowered the new - season planting area and total production, with the national total production decreasing by 40,000 tons to 7.24 million tons [22][25]. - After the Spring Festival, inventory removal has slowed down, and the inventory pressure between Xinjiang and the inland has continued to diverge. As of March 13, the national commercial inventory decreased by 72,700 tons to 5.1351 million tons, higher than the same period by 391,500 tons; Xinjiang's commercial inventory decreased by 85,400 tons to 4.0151 million tons, higher than the same period by 26,600 tons; the commercial inventory in major inland provinces increased by 7,200 tons to 636,200 tons, higher than the same period by 285,100 tons. The average cotton inventory usage days of Chinese enterprises in February increased by 1.5 days to 40.8 days, higher than the same period by 2.6 days, and still at the highest level in the past five years [26][27]. - The pressure on grey cloth in February continued to weaken, and attention should be paid to terminal acceptance. In February, the national grey cloth inventory decreased by 2.7 days to 31.8 days, lower than the same period by 8 days, at the lowest level in the past five years; the national yarn inventory decreased by 0.31 days to 21.45 days, lower than the same period by 0.87 days, at a neutral level in the past five years. The industrial chain pressure is gradually easing, and there is still some inventory - replenishment expectation, but the actual inventory - replenishment intensity of the terminal needs further observation [28]. - Warehouse receipt registration has slowed down, and the total amount is relatively neutral. - The internal - external price difference has widened, and import pressure still exists. China's cotton imports in December were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to December were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. China's cotton yarn imports in December were 170,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons. The cumulative imports from January to December were 1.3255 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [33][35]. 7. Domestic Demand - The resumption of work in downstream enterprises has slowed down, and the profits of spinning enterprises have been repaired. As of March, the spinning mill operating rate increased by 2.8% to 76%, lower than the same period by 0.5%; the weaving mill operating rate increased by 7.4% to 42.8%, lower than the same period by 1.3%; the printing and dyeing mill operating rate increased by 7.69% to 50.15%, lower than the same period by 12.73%, and the gap has further narrowed compared to last week. Overall, downstream enterprises have basically returned to the same - period operating level, providing rigid support for peak - season demand. In terms of spinning profit, the national comprehensive profit has been repaired due to the slight increase in yarn price, but the latest profits of spinning enterprises in Xinjiang and other regions are still significantly below the break - even point [36][37]. - The turnover in the Light Textile City has continued to rebound and recover. The 5 - day moving average of cotton cloth turnover in the Light Textile City increased by 80,000 meters to 332,000 meters, higher than the same period by 88,000 meters [38][40]. - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of textile and clothing in the above - quota category slowed down significantly. The total retail sales of textile and clothing in the above - quota category in December were 166.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the total retail sales from January to December were 1,521.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. The year - on - year growth rate in December was significantly lower than that in November, dragging down the overall performance in 2025 [41][42]. - From January to February, there was a high - speed growth of 17.6%, and the export volume reached a record high for the same period. The cumulative textile and clothing exports from January to February were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6%, including 25.57 billion US dollars for textiles, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and 24.87 billion US dollars for clothing, a year - on - year increase of 14.8% [43][45]. 8. Foreign Demand - In the US, clothing imports in January decreased year - on - year, and China's share remained stable. - In the US, the year - on - year growth of clothing retail sales in December continued to slow down, and inventory removal in the month slowed down year - on - year. - In the EU, clothing imports in December became stronger, but China's share continued to decline. - In December, Turkey's exports weakened, and Vietnam's data in February continued to decline but was relatively strong year - on - year [46][49][51][53].