利率半月报（2026.3.2-2026.3.15）：外贸超预期增长，长债调整或是机会-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - China's imports and exports achieved a "good start" in 2026, with the total value of imports and exports from January to February reaching 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. The growth rate of exports and imports both increased significantly compared to December 2025. However, there is still some pressure on domestic economic growth due to insufficient growth momentum in consumption and investment. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates has decreased, and it may keep interest rates unchanged next week due to the continuous rise in international oil prices caused by the Middle East geopolitical conflict [2][89][91]. - The adjustment of long-term bonds may present an opportunity. It is recommended to grasp the band operation opportunities. The recent appreciation of the RMB is favorable for the Chinese bond market. The long-term bond positions of trading desks are still relatively small, and the risk of long-term bonds is relatively low. Insurance funds may increase their allocation of ultra-long-term bonds in March, and the yield of the 30Y Treasury active bond is expected to fall below 2.20%. The yield of the 10Y Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.9% in 2026 [4][91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - Foreign Trade: In 2026, from January to February, China's total import and export value reached 7.73 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Exports were 4.62 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, and imports were 3.11 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%. Emerging markets played a significant role in pulling exports, and the drag on exports to the United States was alleviated. High-value-added products led the way, and labor-intensive products recovered [11][13][20]. - Monetary Data: At the end of February 2026, the stock of social financing scale was 451.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%. The M2 balance was 349.22 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%. The M1 balance was 115.93 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The M0 balance was 15.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 281.52 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][20]. 3.2 Meso-Frequency Data - Consumption: As of February 8, the daily average retail volume of passenger cars was 4.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 54.0%, and the daily average wholesale volume was 3.6 million, a year-on-year increase of 46.0%. As of March 13, the total box office revenue of movies in the past 7 days was 502.402 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%. As of February 27, the total retail volume of three major household appliances was 1.129 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 26.4%, and the total retail sales were 1.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 41.0% [18][25]. - Transportation: As of March 14, the average migration scale index in the past 7 days was 521.8, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%. As of March 8, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed in the current week was 128,000, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. As of March 13, the average subway passenger volume in first-tier cities in the past 7 days was 4.0262 million person-times, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The railway freight volume decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, and the highway truck traffic volume decreased by 9.3% year-on-year [30][32]. - Industry: As of March 13, the inventory of iron ore was 17.9473 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%, the inventory of rebar was 654,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, and the inventory of float glass enterprises was 7.5849 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of March 5, the daily coal consumption of key power plants was 530,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. The apparent consumption of steel, rebar, and wire rods decreased year-on-year [34][36]. - Real Estate: As of March 13, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities in the past 7 days was 1.629 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. As of March 8, the transaction land area of 100 large and medium-sized cities was 1.2025 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 345.9%, and the total transaction land price was 21.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 134.9% [46][51]. - Prices: As of March 15, the average pork wholesale price was 16.4 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 21.1% and a decrease of 9.7% compared to 4 weeks ago. As of March 13, most prices increased year-on-year, such as the average vegetable wholesale price increased by 3.1% year-on-year, the average WTI crude oil spot price increased by 35.5% year-on-year [55]. 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - Interest Rates: On March 13, overnight Shibor was 1.32%, R001 was 1.39%, R007 was 1.50%, DR001 was 1.32%, DR007 was 1.46%, IBO001 was 1.37%, and IBO007 was 1.50%. The yields of most government bonds increased in the past week [67][72]. - Exchange Rates: On March 13, the central parity rate and the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 6.90/6.90, respectively [82]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior - The median duration of medium and long-term interest rate bond funds on March 13 was about 3.2 years, a decrease of about 0.4 years compared to February 27. The median duration of medium and long-term credit bond funds on March 13 was about 2.7 years, an increase of about 1.0 year compared to February 27 [4][86][88]. 3.5 Investment Recommendations - The adjustment of long-term bonds may present an opportunity. It is recommended to grasp the band operation opportunities. Currently, it is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of 30Y Treasury old bonds, 10Y China Development Bank bonds, and long-duration sinking capital bonds [4][91].