1—2月经济数据超预期，拨开春节迷雾看真章

Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, industrial added value and exports increased by 6.3% and 21.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a strong economic start[1] - Social retail sales grew by 2.8%, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to December 2025, driven by the extended Spring Festival holiday and trade-in policies[2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment surging by 11.4%, becoming the main support for overall investment[3] Consumption and Investment - The retail sales of communication equipment maintained a high growth rate of 17.8%, while home appliance and furniture sales turned positive, increasing by 22% and 11% respectively compared to December 2025[4] - The government plans to allocate 755 billion yuan for central budget investments and 800 billion yuan in special bonds to support infrastructure projects, enhancing investment participation from social capital[5] Export Dynamics - Exports showed strong resilience with a 21.8% year-on-year increase, supported by global AI infrastructure investments and a diversified export market[6] - The shift in China's export focus from traditional consumer goods to high-value intermediate and capital goods is enhancing stability against trade tensions[7] Real Estate Market - In January-February, new housing sales and investment fell by 13.5% and 11.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than in December 2025, indicating signs of stabilization[8] - The willingness of homeowners to list and adjust prices decreased during the Spring Festival, which helped mitigate price declines[9] Policy Recommendations - Fiscal policy should ensure necessary spending intensity and consider timely budget adjustments to support economic growth[10] - Monetary policy should focus on reducing reserve requirements to lower market interest rates and stimulate lending to the real economy[11] - Real estate policies should be relaxed in major cities to boost housing demand and stabilize the market[12]