国泰海通交运周观察：春运收官航空量价双升，关注油运灰色市场变化

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [2]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the Spring Festival, with both volume and price increasing. The report anticipates industry profitability in Q1 2026, driven by a rise in passenger load factors and ticket prices [3][4]. - The oil shipping sector maintains high freight rates, with a focus on changes in the gray market and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices [4]. Summary by Sections Aviation - The Spring Festival of 2026 saw a record high in passenger flow, with an estimated 94.39 million trips, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3%. The report estimates that the passenger load factor increased by over 2 percentage points compared to the previous year, and domestic ticket prices rose by 3-4%, with an 8% increase during the peak holiday period [4][11]. - The Civil Aviation Administration of China continues to strictly control flight schedules, with a slight reduction in flight plans by 1.6% year-on-year. The report suggests that the aviation sector is entering a low-growth supply era, benefiting from consumption policies that will drive demand [4][3]. - The report recommends stocks such as Air China, Spring Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, highlighting the potential for a "super cycle" in the aviation industry [4]. Oil Shipping - The oil shipping sector is characterized by high freight rates, with the report noting that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have significant impacts on shipping routes and pricing [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the gray market, as changes in sanctions against Iran could lead to increased demand for compliant shipping and accelerate the retirement of older vessels [4]. - Recommended stocks in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4].