国债期货周报：暂缺利多驱动-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the bond market lacks substantial bullish drivers, but the low - fluctuating capital prices, the mediocre profit - making effect of the equity market, and the relatively weak domestic demand support the bond market. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach in the short - term. Future attention should be paid to changes in external demand and the central bank's liquidity injection attitude [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Comprehensive Analysis - February's macro indicators were generally better than expected. Strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness drove the improvement of industrial product prices, corporate financing, and currency activation. However, the household sector continued to "shrink its balance sheet," and the price index structure remained differentiated, indicating weak domestic terminal demand. In March, there was a divergence between overseas leading indicators and domestic high - frequency data, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [6] - The market liquidity was balanced this week, and news of stricter self - regulation of non - bank current deposit pricing helped keep certificate of deposit rates low. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause fluctuations in the market liquidity. The central bank's attitude towards liquidity injection is crucial. Recently, the central bank has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds, with a cumulative reduction of 300 billion yuan in the renewal of repurchase agreements this month. Although external factors pushing up short - term inflation are unlikely to change the loose monetary policy, the central bank may be more cautious in liquidity management [6] - Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral trading: Adopt a bearish approach - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [8] Second Part: Relevant Data Tracking - Credit and Social Financing - In February, the year - on - year growth rate of domestic loan balances was 6.0%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.2%, the same as the previous month. The corporate sector's financing demand improved, with a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, up 0.27 percentage points. The government and household sectors' financing growth rates were 16.6% and 0.23% respectively, down 0.7 and 0.31 percentage points [12] - Money Supply - In February, M2 increased by 9.0% year - on - year, the same as the previous month; M1 increased by 5.9% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month. The increase in currency activation may be due to strong external demand and high corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness. Non - bank financial institutions' deposits reached a record high in the same period [17] - Foreign Trade - From January to February, China's exports and imports increased by 21.8% and 19.8% respectively year - on - year in US dollars, far exceeding market expectations. However, in the first two weeks of March, the year - on - year growth of port cargo throughput was not significant, and the sustainability of strong external demand needs further observation [19][23] - Inflation - In February, PPI was - 0.9% year - on - year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and + 0.4% month - on - month, the same as the previous month. The price of upstream and mid - stream production materials was the main driver of the increase. CPI and core CPI increased by 1.3% and 1.8% year - on - year respectively, up 1.1 and 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, mainly due to the Spring Festival factor [28][30] - Industrial Production - This week, the operating rates of petroleum asphalt, olefins, PTA, and PVC were 23.0%, 78.44%, 80.33%, and 81.35% respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.3, + 0.73, + 0.64, and + 0.24 percentage points. Some petrochemical operating rates were weaker than seasonal levels, while some coal - chemical products' operating rates were at seasonal highs [36] - Real Estate - The real estate market in March was fair. The sales area of new houses in 30 large - and medium - sized cities and the number of second - hand house sales in five cities have basically returned to the same period last year. However, the "price - for - volume" strategy in the second - hand housing market may still be ongoing, with the week - on - week decline of the second - hand housing listing price index continuing for the second week [42] - Market Liquidity - This week, the market liquidity was balanced and loose. DR001 and DR007 were 1.3216% and 1.4616% respectively. The long - term capital interest rate of joint - stock banks' 1 - year certificates of deposit fluctuated around 1.55 - 1.56%. Next week, the tax period and increased government bond net payment may cause liquidity fluctuations. The central bank's attitude is crucial, as it has shown a net withdrawal of long - term funds recently [48] - Treasury Bond Futures Valuation and Positioning - As of Friday's close, the IRR of TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts were 1.3488%, 1.4253%, 1.3778%, and 1.6407% respectively. The net long - position ratios of the top ten seats in TS, TF, T, and TL were - 21.35%, - 5.34%, - 1.12%, and - 4.89% respectively, with changes of + 2.36, + 2.44, + 0.17, and - 1.91 percentage points compared to last Friday [53][54] - Other Data - The report also provides data on the price spreads between treasury bond futures contracts, trading volume and open interest, spot bond yields and spreads, and US treasury bond yields and exchange rates [62][65][68][71]