贵金属数据日报-20260316

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - In the short term, the logic of "rising oil prices, increasing inflation risks, and weakening rate - cut expectations" dominates and may continue to suppress precious metal prices. The focus should be on the progress of the Middle East geopolitical situation and oil price trends. In the long run, with the probability of Fed rate - cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, and the wave of de - dollarization, the demand for precious metal allocation by global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, and the price center of precious metals still has room to rise. Long - term strategies suggest buying on dips [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On March 13, 2026, London gold spot was at $5086.36/ounce, down 1.5% from the previous day; London silver spot was at $82.68/ounce, down 3.8%. COMEX gold was at $5091.00/ounce, down 1.5%; COMEX silver was at $82.75/ounce, down 4.0%. AU2604 was at 1133 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG2604 was at 21103 yuan/kg, down 5.0%. AU (T + D) was at 1131.30 yuan/gram, down 1.3%; AG (T + D) was at 20860 yuan/kg, down 4.4% [3]. - Price Spreads and Ratios: On March 13, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 1.7 yuan/gram, with a change of - 19.0%; the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 243 yuan/kg, with a change of - 38.6%. The gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 2.83 yuan/gram, with a change of 217.7%; the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was 117 yuan/kg, with a change of - 54.0%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 53.69, with a change of 3.9%; the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 61.53, with a change of 2.5% [3]. 3.2 Position Data - ETF and COMEX Positions: As of March 13, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1071.56 tons, down 0.40% from the previous day; the silver ETF - SLV was 15460.18069 tons, down 0.51%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in gold were 215445 contracts, up 0.79%; non - commercial short positions were 52313 contracts, down 2.41%; non - commercial net long positions were 163132 contracts, up 1.87%. COMEX non - commercial long positions in silver were 33306 contracts, down 2.69%; non - commercial short positions were 8728 contracts, down 19.84%; non - commercial net long positions were 24578 contracts, up 5.31% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - SHFE and COMEX Inventories: On March 13, 2026, SHFE gold inventory was 105417.00 kg, with a change of 0.00%; SHFE silver inventory was 326566.00 kg, up 5.35%. COMEX gold inventory was 32551562 troy ounces, down 0.32%; COMEX silver inventory was 341723209 troy ounces, down 0.76% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: On March 13, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.90, up 0.07%. The US dollar index was 100.50, up 0.77%. The 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.73%, down 0.80%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.28%, up 0.23%. The VIX was 27.19, down 0.37%; the S&P 500 was 6632.19, down 0.61%; NYMEX crude oil was $99.31, up 3.03% [3]. 3.5 Market Analysis - Market Review: On March 13, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 1.33% to 1133 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 4.19% to 20923 yuan/kg [3]. - Influence Analysis: Trump's announcement of an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, the unresolved geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, and high oil prices increase inflation and weaken the Fed's rate - cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields suppresses precious metal prices. The increase in SHFE silver inventory may affect silver prices. The US economy may face a risk of stagflation [4].