中东地缘持续影响，减化增油化工整体偏强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the methanol market is "bullish and volatile", with a unilateral trading strategy of "bullish" and an arbitrage strategy of "taking profit and expanding the profit spread" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the methanol market was dominated by geopolitical conflicts, combined with the improvement of fundamental supply and demand, and the price rose strongly, showing a clear pattern of overall bullish operation. The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation led to the expectation of reduced import supply, which was the core support for market sentiment. Fundamentally, domestic supply was stable, imports decreased significantly, downstream demand recovered steadily, and inventories in ports and inland areas both decreased, optimizing the supply - demand pattern and providing strong support for prices [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - This week, the overall methanol supply showed a pattern of a slight contraction in domestic production and a significant decline in imports, with the overall supply scale decreasing compared to the previous week. On the domestic production side, the overall operating load of methanol plants was basically flat, and the weekly output decreased slightly. The number of newly - overhauled plants was limited this week, and only a small number of previously shut - down plants resumed production. The production capacity loss caused by overhauls was still greater than the incremental production from resumptions. The overall operating level of the industry remained relatively stable. The operating load of coal - to - methanol plants fluctuated minimally, and although the operations of gas - based and coke - oven - gas - based processes were slightly adjusted, they did not have a significant impact on the overall supply. The supply of domestic goods remained stable. On the import side, it was the core change in the supply side this week. Affected by the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the volume of imported methanol arriving at ports decreased significantly, and the arrival volume at coastal ports dropped sharply, directly driving the port inventory into a de - stocking channel, which was the main driver for the tightening of the coastal market supply. Looking ahead, next week, the number of domestic plants planned to resume production is more than that of newly - overhauled plants, and the domestic supply is expected to increase slightly. Although there is an expectation of a marginal increase in the import arrival volume, it will still be at a relatively low level overall, and it is difficult for the supply side to see a significant increase. Attention should be paid to the long - term impact of the geopolitical situation on the arrival rhythm of imported goods [2] Demand - This week, the methanol demand side showed a pattern of stable demand from major consumers and accelerated recovery of traditional downstream industries, with the overall consumption scale increasing compared to the previous week, providing effective support for the market. The operating load of the methanol - to - olefins industry, the major downstream sector, remained stable overall. Although the consumption volume decreased slightly due to the short - term overhaul of individual plants, the industry as a whole operated smoothly, and the demand for externally - purchased methanol remained rigid. At the same time, the prices of downstream polyolefins also rose significantly, driving a significant recovery in the profits of the MTO industry and providing strong support for the rigid consumption of methanol, without an obvious contraction in demand. Traditional downstream industries became the core incremental demand. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production continued to advance, and the operating loads of various sub - sectors increased to varying degrees. Among them, the operating rate of the formaldehyde industry increased significantly, and the operations of industries such as dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, MTBE, and methane chloride also improved steadily, driving the continuous release of rigid demand for methanol, and the consumption volume of traditional downstream industries increased significantly compared to the previous week. However, after the rapid increase in methanol prices, some downstream industries' acceptance of high - priced raw materials decreased, and their willingness to chase high - price purchases was weak, mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand. The subsequent rhythm of demand release still needs to be monitored in terms of the progress of downstream resumption of work and cost transmission [3] Inventory - This week, the overall methanol inventory showed a pattern of de - stocking in both ports and inland areas, with the inventory level decreasing significantly compared to the previous week, further highlighting the tight supply - demand balance. Port inventory was the core change this week. The coastal methanol inventory decreased significantly and officially entered the de - stocking channel. Affected by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the volume of imported ships arriving at ports decreased significantly, and the supply replenishment was lower than expected. At the same time, with the advancement of downstream resumption of work and production, the提货 rhythm of port warehouses accelerated significantly. Core warehouses in East and South China all showed de - stocking trends, especially in the main warehouses in Jiangsu. The scale of available and tradable goods in ports also decreased, providing strong support for spot prices. The inventory of inland production enterprises also decreased compared to the previous week, and the de - stocking performance in the main production area of Northwest China was particularly obvious. Upstream enterprises actively urged the delivery of goods, and combined with the release of external procurement demand for olefins in the region, the factory inventory continued to decrease, and the overall inventory pressure was relieved. Only in some regions, affected by the downstream resistance to high prices, the volume of pending orders decreased slightly. Looking ahead, although the import arrival volume is expected to increase marginally next week, the overall arrival scale will still be low. Coupled with the continuous recovery of downstream demand, the methanol inventory is expected to continue the de - stocking trend. Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of arrival volume and changes in the downstream提货 rhythm [4] Methanol Profit - This week, the profit on the methanol production side recovered significantly, and the profit of the downstream MTO industry even achieved a fundamental reversal, significantly improving the profit distribution pattern of the industrial chain. In terms of methanol's own profitability, driven by the geopolitical conflict, the central price of methanol increased significantly, while the price of raw material steam coal continued to decline weakly, and the cost - side pressure continued to ease. The profitability of all process routes improved significantly. Among them, coal - to - methanol turned from loss to profit, the profit scale of coke - oven - gas - based methanol expanded significantly, and the loss of natural - gas - based methanol also narrowed significantly. The overall production and operation pressure of the industry was greatly relieved. In terms of downstream MTO profit, the industry's profitability achieved a leap from deep losses to significant profits. Although the methanol price continued to rise, the prices of downstream polyolefin products were driven by the overall upward movement of the energy - chemical sector, and the price increase far exceeded that of methanol. The cost - side pressure was smoothly transmitted downstream, and the MTO production profit recovered significantly. The improvement in profitability also supported the stable operation of industry plants, ensuring the rigid demand for methanol and forming a positive cycle in the industrial chain. In the future, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the transmission of high methanol prices to downstream costs and the marginal impact of polyolefin price fluctuations on MTO profits [5] Politics - The US military launched an air strike on Iranian facilities. The US military attacked the defense facilities on Iran's Kharg Island, where more than 15 explosions occurred, but the oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air - defense system restarted about an hour later. The situation on Kharg Island was under control. Iran stated that the island's oil exports were normal, and the important oil infrastructure was not damaged. Trump said that the conditions were not good enough, and he was not ready to reach an agreement with Iran at present. According to the New York Post, Iran's foreign minister said that all countries except the US and Israel were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firmly believed that if Iran lost control of the Strait of Hormuz, it would lose the war [6]