液化石油气（LPG）投资周报：海峡封锁的第二周，恐慌情绪日益加深-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, PG is still trading under the tension of near - end international supply and the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical situation. As the Strait blockade continues, the supply - demand contradiction structure may change periodically. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report provides the closing price, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical raw materials. For example, the WTI crude oil price is $99.31 per barrel, with a daily increase of 3.03%, a weekly increase of 8.81%, a monthly increase of 58.11%, and an annual increase of 47.17%. [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis Supply - Last week, the total LPG commodity volume was about 54.39 million tons, including 22.65 million tons of civil gas, 20.52 million tons of industrial gas, and 18.72 million tons of ether - after C4. The LPG arrival volume last week was 61 million tons, an increase of 13.41%. Multiple refineries in Shandong and East China reduced production, and a refinery in North China is scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a decline in domestic LPG commodity volume. [4] Demand - Civil gas procurement has increased due to concerns about supply interruptions, leading to a short - term increase in combustion demand. The risk of raw material supply interruption for PDH has intensified, resulting in a decline in the operating rate of PDH plants and postponed maintenance by enterprises to control losses. In the olefin deep - processing sector, the cost has pushed up product prices, but high prices have suppressed actual demand, resulting in light market transactions. However, in the long run, it is beneficial for domestic MTBE exports. [4] Inventory - Last week, the in - plant LPG inventory was [not specified] (with a change of 8.91%), and the port inventory was 227.24 million tons (with a change of - 1.52%). The market sentiment of refineries is still dominated by news, and prices have been successfully pushed up due to the hoarding behavior of manufacturers. However, due to the volatile geopolitical situation, market transactions vary. Although the number of arriving ships at ports has increased, the inventory of ships arriving at the end of the week will be reflected next week, and there has been little change in the unloading volume this week. With the increase in demand, the port inventory has decreased this period. [4] Basis, Position - The weekly average basis in East China is 517.60 yuan/ton, in South China is 392.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 440.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 3108, an increase of [not specified], and the lowest deliverable location is Shandong. [4] Chemical Downstream - The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 63.23%, 57.31%, and 38.34% respectively. The profits of PDH - to - propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton, 249 yuan/ton, and 37 yuan/ton respectively. [4] Valuation - The PG - SC ratio is 1.04 (a decrease of 4.22%), and the PG spread between the main and secondary months is N/A yuan/ton (N/A). The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has intensified, causing crude oil prices to rise, but the oil - gas cracking spread shows a weakening trend. [4] Other Factors - The military conflict between the US - Israel and Iran has seriously escalated the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, leading to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has caused panic - driven price increases in products from crude oil, LPG, methanol to downstream olefins, resulting in a temporary shortage of resource supply. The "15th Five - Year Plan" of the 2026 National Two Sessions aims for an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%. The IEA has coordinated the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves to address the shipping interruption crisis in the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US - Israel military strike on Iran. [4] 3.3 LPG Futures Price and Spread Analysis - The report provides the prices, monthly spreads, and cross - monthly spreads of LPG futures contracts, including PG01 - PG12. It also includes the scoring rules and price change data for different spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 - PG02 is 87.00, with a 12.12% decrease compared to last week. [11][12] 3.4 Refinery and Plant Maintenance Plans - The report lists the maintenance plans of major Chinese refineries, local refineries, PDH plants, and LPG factories, including the refinery names, locations, processing capacities, maintenance devices, maintenance capacities, start and end times, etc. [14][15][16] 3.5 International and Domestic Price and Spread Charts - There are multiple charts showing the prices, spreads, and ratios of various LPG - related products in the international and domestic markets, including CP propane/butane prices, FEI propane/butane prices, MB propane/butane prices, and their spreads and ratios with WTI, Brent crude oil, etc. There are also charts about the spreads between different LPG products and the spreads between LPG and other energy products. [17][23][27][30][36][38][41][47][51][53][54][63] 3.6 Consumption and Inventory Data - The report shows consumption data such as the apparent consumption of LPG, the combustion consumption of domestic C3, and the chemical consumption of olefin LPG and butane. It also provides inventory data including port inventory, refinery inventory, and their corresponding capacity utilization rates in different regions. [145][168][170][185][186] 3.7 Deep - Processing Profit Analysis - The report analyzes the profits of alkane deep - processing, olefin deep - processing (including MTBE and alkylation oil), including PDH - to - propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE isomerization/etherification profits, and alkylation oil profits, along with their corresponding operating rates. [203][206][211][215][218][219][220][223][226]