日度策略参考-20260316

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Bonds, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers. Long positions can be considered in the medium to long term by taking advantage of the discount of stock index futures [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as asset allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the downside is limited as downstream industries resume production, and they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the cost support emerges despite weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply concerns and inflation risks [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and macro - emotional fluctuations [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance [1]. - Tin prices are greatly affected by the macro situation and have declined [1]. - Precious metal prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly due to oil price fluctuations and a strong US dollar [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term until the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear [1]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon investment should be on the sidelines due to liquidity risks [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, battery exports, and mine disruptions [1]. - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1]. - Hot rolled coil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to de - stocking pressure [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating more sharply due to policy fluctuations, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts, policy incentives, and cost factors despite weak supply - demand [1]. - Bond prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the medium term due to more relaxed supply - demand, although affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the coking profit has been repaired [1]. - Palm oil prices are bullish due to tight supply - demand in the international market [1]. - Soybean oil prices are expected to rise following other oils and can be used for short - position hedging [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are bullish in the short term due to potential US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area decreases [1]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and the upside space needs new drivers [1]. - Pulp futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton [1]. - Log futures prices have fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pig prices are supported by demand, and production capacity needs further release [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost but have relatively weak influence in the energy sector [1]. - BR rubber prices are rising and have upward potential due to supply disruptions and cost support [1]. - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, supply shortages, and downstream demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices have risen due to raw material shortages [1]. - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disruptions and strong demand [1]. - Urea prices have limited upside due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol prices are affected by Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC prices are bullish due to geopolitical factors and capacity adjustments [1]. - PG prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical premiums, demand, and inventory [1].