钢材：原料支撑偏强，短期维持震荡

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The drivers are from two aspects: macroscopically, geopolitical conflicts have pushed up energy prices and spread to the commodity market; industrially, construction steel presents a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, and inventory accumulation slowing down". The current production and inventory levels are at the lowest in the same period of the past five years, providing support for prices [1]. - Looking ahead, there are disturbances on the supply side of furnace materials, and the cost side continues to rise. Construction sites are gradually resuming work, the spot trading of building materials is gradually recovering, and the apparent demand has returned to the level of the same period last year, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts still have great uncertainties, and the US has launched a new trade investigation, which is negative for steel exports. After the Two Sessions, there is still room for blast furnace复产, the upward driving force of the futures market is limited, and there is pressure after the price rebounds [1]. Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review and Outlook - This week, the steel market showed a relatively strong trend, with both futures and spot prices rising. The driving factors are macro - geopolitical conflicts and industrial "supply - demand and inventory" patterns [1]. - In the future, furnace material supply is disturbed, cost rises, construction site work resumes, but it is still in the off - season. Geopolitical conflicts and US trade investigations are negative for exports. After the Two Sessions, there is room for blast furnace复产, and the futures price has pressure after the rebound [1]. 2. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output of steel mills was 221.20 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 million tons, or - 2.81%. The inventory of rebar steel mills was 239.62 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons, or 0.71%. The social inventory of rebar was 654.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.80 million tons, or 2.63%. The inventory of hot - rolled coil steel mills was 89.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.80 million tons, or - 0.89%. The social inventory of hot - rolled coil was 382.31 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 million tons, or 0.18% [3]. 3. Market Review - Futures Market: The report presents multiple charts related to the futures market, including the 5 - day intraday chart of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts, the price difference between 05 and 10 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the disk, and the speculation degree (trading volume/position) [5][7][9]. - Spot Market: The report shows charts of the rebar price in East China (Shanghai), the hot - rolled 4.75 spot price in Shanghai, the rebar basis, and the hot - rolled coil basis [12][13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report includes charts of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, rebar blast furnace profit, rebar and hot - rolled coil supply - demand trend, seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory, and seasonal analysis of rebar and hot - rolled coil social inventory [15][19][21]