铜：宏观压制，需求回暖

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices showed a weak and volatile trend. Shanghai copper tested the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and LME copper fell below the $13,000/ton mark during the week. The macro - environment has changed, and the previous loose background supporting non - ferrous metals has shaken. The supply side has continuous disturbances in the mining end, while domestic smelting is in good condition. The demand side shows signs of improvement, but further observation of inventory reduction is needed [2]. - The recent copper price is greatly affected by the macro - level. Geopolitical conflicts lead to increased inflation expectations and reduced Fed rate - cut expectations, suppressing copper prices. The low TC provides a solid bottom support for copper prices. If domestic peak - season demand is released as expected and inventory is continuously reduced, copper prices will have upward driving force. Before the geopolitical situation is clear, macro - sentiment will continue to dominate the market, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Last week, copper prices were volatile and weak. Shanghai copper tested the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and LME copper fell below the $13,000/ton mark. The US February non - farm payrolls data was unexpectedly negative, and geopolitical conflicts increased stagflation concerns. The supply side had continuous mining end disturbances, and domestic smelting was good with a 13.3% year - on - year increase in refined copper production from January to February. The demand side showed signs of improvement after the copper price decline [2]. 2. Key Factors to Watch - Geopolitical changes and inventory reduction [4]. 3. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Electrolytic copper price (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 100460 | 101000 | - 540 | - 0.53% | Weekly | | Electrolytic copper premium/discount (≥99.95%): Shanghai | yuan/ton | 80 | - 60 | 140 | 233.33% | Weekly | | Clean copper concentrate forward spot composite index (TC) | dollars/dry ton | - 57.2 | - 56 | - 1.2 | - 2.14% | Weekly | | Oxygen - free copper rod price | yuan/ton | 101520 | 102050 | - 530 | - 0.52% | Weekly | | LME copper inventory | tons | 311825 | 284325 | 27500 | 9.67% | Weekly | | SHFE copper inventory | tons | 433458 | 425145 | 8313 | 1.96% | Weekly | | COMEX copper inventory | short tons | 591645 | 597938 | - 6293 | - 1.05% | Weekly | [4] 4. Futures Market Review - Includes Shanghai copper price trend, LME copper price trend, and Shanghai - London ratio (without exchange rate adjustment) [6][7][9] 5. Supply Situation Analysis - Covers copper concentrate forward spot price, rough copper spot processing average price, copper concentrate port inventory, domestic electrolytic copper production, electrolytic copper and scrap copper price trends, and main market refined - scrap price difference [14] 6. Demand Situation Analysis - Involves 1 electrolytic copper premium/discount in Shanghai, copper product prices, copper product capacity utilization rate, refined copper rod trading volume, Yangshan copper bonded area premium, and electrolytic copper warehouse receipt bill of lading premium (pyrometallurgy) [16][19][21] 7. Inventory Situation Analysis - Includes electrolytic copper spot inventory and inventories of three major futures exchanges [25]