纯碱：企业库存高位下降，震荡略偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic soda ash market showed a stable - to - strong trend with narrow price increases. Last week, the soda ash production was 809,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2200 tons or 0.27%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23%. The total inventory of soda ash manufacturers was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80%. The number of pending orders of soda ash enterprises increased slightly to over 14 days. Currently, the profits of soda ash enterprises have recovered. It is expected that the domestic soda ash production will remain stable at a high level this week, and the downstream demand will be relatively stable in the near term. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly this week, and the operation of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable this week. As the end of the export rush approaches, demand is gradually weakening, and the inventory in the photovoltaic glass industry has reached new highs. Against the backdrop of loose supply - demand for soda ash, it is expected that the inventory of soda ash enterprises will remain at a high level in the near term. With the pressure from new - capacity releases and the relatively high cost of fuel, the focus should be on changes in soda ash production. It is predicted that the price of soda ash will fluctuate slightly weaker in the near term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Review: The domestic soda ash market was stable - to - strong, with prices slightly increasing. The production, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and pending orders of soda ash enterprises showed corresponding changes. The production was 809,200 tons, up 0.27% week - on - week; capacity utilization was 87%, up 0.23%; inventory was 1.9317 million tons, down 0.80%; and pending orders increased slightly [1]. - Outlook: Soda ash enterprise profits have recovered. This week, domestic soda ash production is expected to be stable at a high level, and downstream demand will be relatively stable. Float glass production may decline slightly, and photovoltaic glass operation will be stable. Demand for photovoltaic glass is weakening, and its inventory is at a high level. Soda ash inventory will remain high, new - capacity releases will put pressure, and fuel costs are high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly weaker [1]. 3.2 Factors to be Concerned About - Changes in soda ash production, new - capacity release progress, and changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] 3.3 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week - Periodic and Spot Market: The basis (East China) was - 27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton or - 285.7% [3]. - Supply: The weekly production was 809,200 tons, up 0.22 tons or 0.3% week - on - week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87%, up 0.23%. The double - ton profit of the combined - alkali method was 166 yuan/ton, an increase of 168.5 yuan/ton or 6740%. The profit of the ammonia - alkali method was - 26.2 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.45 yuan/ton or 68.3% [1][3]. - Demand: The downstream float glass operation rate was 71.05%, up 0.24 percentage points or 0.3% week - on - week. The downstream photovoltaic glass operation rate was 66.34%, up 0.41 percentage points or 0.6% week - on - week [3]. - Inventory: The soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9317 million tons, a weekly decrease of 15,500 tons or 0.80% [1][3]. - Position Analysis: The total trading volume of soda ash was 1,851,488 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 1,060,509 lots. The total long - position holding was 807,257 lots, an increase of 18,257 lots. The total short - position holding was 941,279 lots, a decrease of 2827 lots [13].