棕榈油期货：宏观情绪升温支撑油脂上行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The palm oil futures market showed a trend of rising and fluctuating last week, with obvious gains for the whole week. The trading volume remained high and volatile, and the long and short sides fiercely competed around the range of 9,500 - 9,800 yuan per ton. The linkage with crude oil and the origin data were the core drivers [1]. - The palm oil production in Malaysia decreased in March, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the export margin recovered. The short - term palm oil will maintain a high - level volatile and strong trend. It is recommended to buy on dips and be cautious about chasing highs [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The palm oil futures showed a trend of rising and fluctuating last week, with obvious gains. The trading volume remained high and volatile. The long and short sides fiercely competed around the range of 9,500 - 9,800 yuan per ton. The linkage with crude oil and the origin data were the core drivers. The open interest decreased slightly from 385,100 lots on March 9th to 340,100 lots on March 15th [1]. 3.2 Outlook - Positive factors: The palm oil production in Malaysia in March will still be at a seasonal low, the inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the export data in March will continue to recover. The rigid demand from India and Europe will continue to support the external market. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has not been alleviated, and international crude oil is likely to remain at a high level. There is always an expectation of biodiesel demand, which forms cost support for palm oil prices [2]. - Negative factors: The high inventory of 800,000 tons in China is still the core suppressing factor. Traders have tight capital chains and strong willingness to sell at reduced prices, and there is no substantial improvement in spot transactions [2]. 3.3 Attention Factors - Malaysia's palm oil production and export data [3]. - The repair change of the soybean - palm oil price difference [3]. 3.4 Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Ship Date | Region | Forward Exchange Rate | Import Cost | Disk Price | Disk Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | May | South China | 6.8727 | 10,064 | 9,996 | - 68 | | September | South China | 6.8225 | 9,904 | 9,840 | - 64 | [4]