公募REITs2026年春季策略展望：存量重构开新局，REITs蓝海向未来

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The launch of commercial real - estate investment trusts (REITs) will have a profound impact on the Chinese public REITs market from three aspects: market structure, valuation ecosystem, and market space. The infrastructure REITs and commercial real - estate REITs will work together to form a multi - level market ecosystem [3]. - In 2026, the secondary market of public REITs will bottom out and is expected to rise. It is recommended to seek structural opportunities in the differentiation [3]. - The performance of various types of REITs in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to show different trends, with quantity taking precedence over price and an inflection point is expected [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commercial Real - Estate REITs Open a New Chapter, Painting a New Blueprint for Public REITs - Market Development Status: As of March 13, 2026, the total market value of China's public REITs reached 224.1 billion yuan, with 79 listed products. The expansion mechanism has been continuously implemented, and 9 products have completed expansion. The current public REITs are mainly infrastructure - based, and the market value of five types of assets with strong public attributes accounts for 60% [10]. - Policy Support: In December 2025, relevant policies were issued, including promoting the stable and healthy development of commercial real - estate REITs, expanding the market, strengthening secondary - market construction, and optimizing processes and standards [12]. - Comparison between Commercial Real - Estate REITs and Infrastructure REITs: In terms of asset types, infrastructure REITs are more focused on people's livelihood support, while commercial real - estate REITs have a higher degree of marketization. In terms of issuers, the issuers of commercial real - estate REITs are more diversified. In terms of review and fundraising use, commercial real - estate REITs have a more concise review process and more flexible use of funds. In terms of operation, commercial real - estate REITs are more closely related to the economic cycle and have greater volatility [16][17]. - Investor Allocation Decision: Different economic cycles and accounting measurement models will affect investors' allocation decisions. In the economic up - cycle, commercial real - estate REITs are more likely to be allocated, while in the economic down - cycle, infrastructure REITs with stronger defensive properties are preferred. Different accounting measurement models also lead to different degrees of investors' increase or decrease in positions [20]. - Original Equity Holders' Considerations: When choosing the listing platform, original equity holders will consider the fit of asset positioning, financing costs, and financing efficiency. Commercial real - estate REITs have advantages in terms of financing efficiency and flexibility of fund use [25]. 3.2 The Stock Ecosystem Will Be Reconstructed, and the Trillion - Dollar Market Is More Promising - Rich Asset Structure: As of March 13, 2026, 15 commercial real - estate REITs have been submitted to the exchange for review. The underlying assets introduce new formats such as hotels and office buildings, and there is a mixed - asset offering for the first time. The composition of original equity holders is more market - oriented, and private and foreign - funded enterprises account for more than 50% [31][34]. - Reconstructed Valuation Ecosystem - Increased Flexibility and Intensified Differentiation in Initial Valuation: The initial dividend payout ratio of commercial real - estate REITs shows a certain pattern, and the initial yield requirements are adjusted to be linked to the risk - free interest rate, providing greater pricing flexibility for issuers [39]. - Valuation of Mixed - Asset REITs: The core advantage of mixed - asset REITs is to improve the stability of future cash flows, but valuation is difficult. Absolute valuation can use the DCF method for different formats and regions, and relative valuation can calculate the weighted dividend payout ratio based on comparable projects [53]. - Expanded Market Capacity - Short - term (2026): As the first year of the commercial real - estate REITs pilot, the policy dividend is obvious. The review and issuance rhythm are expected to be faster, and the single - product scale is larger. The infrastructure focuses on mature assets such as highways, energy, warehousing, and affordable rental housing. The total issuance scale of initial offerings and expansions is expected to be about 107.5 billion yuan, and the market scale is expected to reach 327.5 billion yuan by the end of 2026 [56]. - Medium - term (2027 - 2031): The market is still in the stage of expansion, with initial offerings as the main form and expansions as the auxiliary. The initial offerings are mainly commercial real - estate REITs, and the infrastructure is turning to new assets. The expansion scale of infrastructure will gradually exceed the initial offerings. The market scale is expected to reach 940 billion yuan by the end of 2031 [56]. - Long - term (after 2031): The market is expected to enter a stable development stage, with stock expansion and optimization as the main theme. The market space is expected to reach 1.29 - 2.10 trillion yuan [56]. - Return Expectations: Under the neutral scenario, it is expected that 35 REITs will be issued in 2026, with an average initial offering scale of 300 million yuan. The expected first - day increase is 10%, and the offline subscription winning rate is 0.44%. The offline subscription return rate for funds ranging from 10 million to 500 million yuan is 1.56% [60][61]. 3.3 Interest Rate Spread Passivation Continues to Deduce, Bottoming Out and Accumulating Strength for Layout - Market Trends in Q1 2026: Affected by factors such as the launch of commercial real - estate REITs, concerns about the performance of underlying assets, and expectations of rising risk - free interest rates, the overall market trend is still weak, and trading sentiment is low [68]. - Five Influencing Factors of Asset Allocation Value: The five influencing factors include the domestic and international macro - economic environment, interest rate spread advantage, investor structure, richness of investable products, and expansion rhythm [70][72]. - Analysis of Each Factor - Macro - economic Environment: The performance of underlying assets is affected by the macro - economic environment. PPI turning positive and corporate profit repair may benefit industrial plants and warehousing and logistics REITs, and service consumption expansion may benefit consumer infrastructure REITs [76]. - Interest Rate Spread Advantage: As of March 13, 2026, the dividend payout ratio of equity - type REITs is higher than the 10 - year Treasury bond yield and is close to the CSI Dividend Index dividend rate, showing strong dividend cost - effectiveness [79]. - Investor Structure: Long - term funds such as securities companies and insurance companies are the main holders of REITs, but their low trading activity restricts the market liquidity. Policies to introduce long - term funds and expand the investment scope of public funds are expected to improve the situation [89][95]. - Richness of Investable Products: It is expected that China will launch sub - industry REITs indices in the future, but the promotion of REITs ETFs may be cautious due to low market liquidity [96]. - Expansion Rhythm: The REITs project reserve is relatively sufficient. The concentrated issuance of the first batch of commercial real - estate projects may cause a siphon effect on the stock market in the short term, but it will attract incremental funds in the long term [102]. - Investment Strategy in 2026: The secondary market of public REITs is expected to bottom out and rise. It is recommended to pay attention to structural opportunities in different asset types, such as affordable rental housing, consumer, warehousing and logistics, industrial park, energy, transportation, public utilities, and IDC REITs [105]. 3.4 Q1 2026 Performance Outlook: Quantity Precedes Price, and an Inflection Point Is Expected - Affordable Rental Housing REITs: The rent of market - oriented projects is under pressure, while the quantity and price of public rental housing are stable. After the Spring Festival, the rent of some market - oriented projects may fluctuate seasonally, and the rent of public rental housing is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the regional projects with improved second - hand housing rent [107]. - Consumer REITs: The performance is generally good, but it is still under pressure to maintain high growth. The performance of regional shopping centers is expected to increase year - on - year in Q1 2026, while the revenue of community - level shopping centers may decline. The sales of outlet malls are expected to increase in Q1 2026, but may decline in the traditional off - season [115][116]. - Warehousing and Logistics REITs: The supply clearance progress varies, and the rent in Q1 2026 is expected to be weakly differentiated. The rent of some projects may be adjusted downward, and the occupancy rate is expected to be stable or improve [119][120]. - Industrial Park REITs: The overall demand is weak, and the rent continues to decline. The tenant stickiness of factory buildings is strong, and the rent follows the market. The business parks are still in the stage of destocking, and the performance bottom may come in the second half of the year [123][124]. - Transportation REITs: The performance in Q1 2026 is expected to be "pressured in the front and stable in the back". The Spring Festival disturbance and road network differentiation coexist. Attention should be paid to the projects in regions with strong economic resilience and controllable road network planning [126][127]. - Energy REITs: It is expected that the quantity and price of hydropower will be stable in Q1 2026, the photovoltaic electricity price will rise steadily, the wind power price will decline slightly, and the impact of gas - electricity linkage on gas - fired power generation is controllable. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities [128][129]. - Public Utilities REITs: The quantity is generally under pressure, and there may be a risk of price decline in waste treatment projects. Attention should be paid to the changes in the source of treatment volume and the progress of price adjustment of some projects [132][134]. - IDC REITs: The long - term contracts with major customers lock in the quantity and price, and the basic situation is expected to be stable. Attention should be paid to the cost - side changes and the expansion progress of IDC REITs [135].