渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.03.16）-20260316

Macro and Strategy Research - The US non-farm employment data for February was significantly below market expectations, continuing the slowdown trend since the end of 2025. The labor participation rate has slightly decreased after adjustments, and while the unemployment rate has increased, it remains within a controllable range. Inflation data appears stable, aligning with market expectations, but core goods are outperforming core services, indicating tariff transmission effects in sectors like apparel [2][3] - In Europe, the reliance on oil imports is higher, making the situation more challenging, with markets pricing in a potential interest rate hike by the European Central Bank this year [3] Fixed Income Research - February CPI showed an increase in both year-on-year and month-on-month growth, driven by seasonal factors and rising international oil prices, which also impacted PPI. The core inflation is expected to seasonally decline in March, with input factors remaining significant [6] - The central bank net injected 500 billion yuan into the market, with funding prices slightly rising. The issuance of bonds in the primary market decreased, with a total of 63 bonds issued, amounting to 414.2 billion yuan [6][8] - The long-term interest rates are under pressure due to rising inflation expectations, particularly from the increase in international oil prices. The market is advised to cautiously observe inflation changes in the short term [7][8] Industry Research - Eli Lilly has invested $3 billion to enhance its supply chain in China, indicating strong interest in the Chinese pharmaceutical market [9] - Several pharmaceutical companies have been added to the Hong Kong Stock Connect list, reflecting growing investor interest [10] - The SW pharmaceutical sector index rose by 2.49% during the week, with all sub-sectors showing gains. The overall industry P/E ratio is 49.25 times, with a valuation premium of 245% compared to the CSI 300 [10] - The report maintains a "neutral" rating for the industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for companies like Heng Rui Medicine and WuXi AppTec, while also highlighting the potential impact of rising raw material prices on pharmaceutical companies [11]