市场快讯：棉花滑准税配额发放30万吨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the total amount of processing trade quotas for cotton import sliding duty is 300,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application. The early and increased release of the quota will stimulate foreign cotton imports and ease the "tight - balance" supply expectation in the domestic cotton market [2]. - The expected reduction in Xinjiang's cotton production and the significant shrinkage of the target planting area have formed an expectation of tightened supply in the new year, providing bottom support for cotton futures prices. The high sales rate and decreasing commercial inventory have intensified concerns about subsequent supply [3]. - The demand side has both opportunities and challenges. Although it is the traditional textile peak season, the profit of cotton spinning mills has decreased, and the new orders are limited. However, the macro - economic environment provides support for cotton demand [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side - In 2026, the total cotton production target in Xinjiang is stable at around 5.6 million tons, a 9.2% decrease from 6.165 million tons in 2025. The target planting area is expected to be significantly reduced by 500,000 - 700,000 mu [3]. - As of March 5, 2026, the national cotton sales rate reached 71.9%, a year - on - year increase of 19.2 percentage points and 23.5 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is gradually decreasing [3]. Demand - side - March - April is the traditional textile peak season "Golden March and Silver April", with spinning mills' overall operation and production - sales returning to normal levels, but the profit of cotton spinning mills has decreased, and new orders are limited [4]. - The domestic monetary policy is conducive to reducing the cost of textile enterprises and stabilizing cotton demand. In the first two months of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports increased by 18.3% year - on - year, and textile and clothing exports were 50.45 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 17.6% [4]. Operation Suggestion - Hold long positions for the 05 contract below 15,300 yuan/ton [4]