GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-16 09:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto [1][2][11] Core Insights - Li Auto's Q4 2025 net profit was 0.2 million yuan, down 99% year-on-year and down 103% quarter-on-quarter. Despite this, the company is actively promoting organizational changes and has a strong focus on smart technology, leading to the decision to maintain the "Buy" rating [2][11] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 112.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 22% year-on-year. The net profit is expected to be 1.124 billion yuan, down 86% year-on-year. For Q4 2025, revenue is estimated at 28.8 billion yuan, a decline of 35% year-on-year but an increase of 5% quarter-on-quarter [5][11] - The company plans to adjust its revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 138.7 billion yuan and 165.8 billion yuan, respectively, while introducing a new revenue forecast for 2028 at 183.0 billion yuan [11] - The report estimates a target price of 79.97 HKD based on a 1.1x PS ratio for 2026 [11] Delivery and Product Strategy - In Q4 2025, Li Auto delivered 109,000 vehicles, a decrease of 31% year-on-year but an increase of 17% quarter-on-quarter. The company expects to deliver between 85,000 to 90,000 vehicles in Q1 2026, a year-on-year decrease of 8.5% to 31% [11] - The company is set to launch the new Li Auto L9 in Q2 2026, which features advanced technology aimed at enhancing user experience and driving sales recovery [11] Organizational Changes - Li Auto has introduced a partner system for its stores to enhance operational efficiency and improve sales management. This initiative aims to address previous issues related to store selection and performance [11]