国贸期货黑色金属周报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: Cost has support, and opportunities to go long can be sought after the basis weakens. The industry is expected to enter a stage of strong supply and demand after the Two Sessions, but price rebound elasticity may be suppressed under high inventory [5]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Attention should be paid to the development of geopolitical conflicts. The market is greatly affected by geopolitical factors, and the uncertainty is strong. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the changes in geopolitical themes [60]. - Iron Ore: BHP's iron ore supply is restricted again, and iron ore prices have risen significantly. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Supply: Affected by previous environmental protection restrictions, pig iron production continued to decline, with a decrease of 6.4 to 221.2 wt this week. Scrap steel daily consumption is slowly recovering, slightly weaker than the seasonal average. After the Two Sessions, production may gradually increase [5]. - Demand: Construction material demand is seasonally rising, with both supply and demand increasing. There is no sign of exceeding the seasonal average. Hot - rolled coil production has decreased following the recent decline in pig iron production, while apparent demand has slightly increased. Cold - rolled and medium - plate supply and demand are slightly stronger [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of the five major steel products is still accumulating, but the amplitude is narrowing. Only construction materials (rebar + wire rod) are still accumulating inventory, while plate inventory has begun to decline. The billet inventory also shows signs of reaching the peak and falling. The total inventory level of the five major steel products is at a historical neutral level, with construction material inventory being low and plate and billet inventory being slightly high [5]. - Basis/Spread: The basis of hot - rolled coil and rebar has declined. As of Friday, the basis of rb2605 in the East China region (Hangzhou) is 78, a week - on - week decrease of 14; the basis of hc2605 in the East China region (Shanghai) is - 25, a week - on - week decrease of 25 [5]. - Profit: After the Spring Festival, the increase in furnace charge prices is slightly higher than that of finished products, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The actual production profit is slightly higher than the statistical profit, and the rebar profit is slightly better than that of plates. The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13%, with a weekly change of 3.03% [5]. - Valuation: The basis of hot - rolled coil has returned to a premium, while rebar is mostly in a discount structure. The basis of hot - rolled coil is more suitable for cash - and - carry arbitrage, and the spot liquidity is better. From an industrial perspective, the production profit corresponding to the futures price is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is not high [5]. - Macro and Risk Appetite: Geopolitical factors still affect the market. Although the black - metal sector's supply and demand are mainly domestic and less sensitive to geopolitical factors, there is an overflow effect on market sentiment. In the short term, coal may be affected, providing upward impetus through energy substitution and increased logistics costs [5]. - Investment Viewpoint: Short - term long. In the context of high inventory, the price rebound elasticity may be suppressed. The derivatives market is currently focused on the price pulse increase in the energy - chemical chain triggered by geopolitical issues. There is no unilateral trend - driving market, and pulse - type rebound bands can be participated in. After the recent basis weakens, attention can be paid to basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities, with hot - rolled coil being the best choice [5]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Participate in pulse - type rebounds. Arbitrage: The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar is in the range of [140, 180]. Cash - and - carry: Opportunities for basis long or cash - and - carry arbitrage of hot - rolled coil [5]. Coking Coal and Coke - Demand: Downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory accumulation amplitude is slowing down. During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place. The average daily pig iron production of 247 steel mills this week was 221.20 (- 6.39), and the profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13% (+ 3.03%). Although pig iron production decreased rapidly this week due to environmental protection restrictions during the Two Sessions, production resumed in the second half of the week, but the data did not reflect it [60]. - Coking Coal Supply: Domestic coal mines have resumed production quickly. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports remains at a high level, and the port trade quotes are firm. However, the willingness to accept high - priced Mongolian coal is still insufficient, and most enterprises are still observing the price trend of coking coal and coke. The overseas coking coal price in Australia is weakly stable, and the forward price is slightly stronger due to the tense international situation [60]. - Coke Supply: During the Two Sessions, normal environmental protection restrictions were in place for coking plants. This week, the average daily coke production was 110.9 (-), and the coking profit was - 3 (- 20). Affected by the increase in the price of chemical by - products, although the coke price adjustment was implemented and the raw coal price increased, the actual profit of coking plants was relatively good [60]. - Inventory: The downstream procurement sentiment has increased. The supply of coal mines in the production areas is sufficient. Although the downstream inventory is still sufficient, affected by the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the market procurement sentiment has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream, which is beneficial to prices [60]. - Basis/Spread: After the first round of price cuts was implemented, the sharp rise in crude oil interrupted the price - cut cycle. After the first round of price cuts by steel mills, the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1680, and the trade warehouse - receipt remains around 1730 before the price cuts. The price of Mongolian raw coal has rebounded to around 1090, and the warehouse - receipt cost is around 1200 [60]. - Profit: The profitability rate of steel mills is 41.13% (+ 3.03%), and the coking profit is - 3 (- 20) [60]. - Summary: Geopolitical conflicts continue to dominate the market trend. The high - level volatility of crude oil has also driven the strengthening of other commodities. The market is mainly concerned about the situation in Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is still in a state of de - facto closure. The storage and continuous production characteristics of crude oil are still the biggest risk points in the future. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the navigation situation in the strait. In the market, affected by the rise in crude oil prices, the downstream procurement sentiment has recovered, the coking coal and coke auction prices have mostly increased, and the coke price - cut cycle has temporarily stopped. There is no current plan to raise prices [60]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Temporarily observe. Arbitrage: Consider gradually establishing cash - and - carry positions. Risk concerns: Changes in coal mine production policies, changes in steel demand, and macro - level disturbances [60]. Iron Ore - Supply: The Reuters shipping data this period shows a week - on - week increase of 12.7 tons per day to 417 tons per day. Among them, the shipping volume from Australia increased by 21.5 tons per day, that from Brazil decreased by 2.4 tons per day, and that from non - mainstream mines decreased by 6.4 tons per day to 68 tons per day. In terms of arrivals, the total arrivals in China increased by 24.8 tons per day week - on - week, with arrivals from Australia increasing by 23.4 tons per day, arrivals from Brazil decreasing by 20.3 tons per day, and arrivals from non - mainstream sources increasing by 21.7 tons per day [112]. - Demand: This period, the pig iron production of steel mills decreased by 6.39 to 221.2 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the phased emission reduction control requirements during the Two Sessions. After the end of the restrictions, pig iron production is expected to continue to increase in mid - March. The average daily port clearance volume of 47 ports has increased significantly to 332.33 tons, and the port inventory has increased by 52.49 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year. Affected by the low - inventory operation of steel mills, the in - plant inventory is still at a relatively low level in recent years [112]. - Inventory: The port inventory has increased slightly by 52.49 tons to 17947.32 tons, remaining higher than the same period last year and reaching a new high for the year [112]. - Profit: The profit of steel mills is at a low level [112]. - Valuation: The short - term valuation is neutral [112]. - Summary: There are rumors in the market about restrictions on the procurement of Newman powder, which has an impact on the market. Policy changes are frequent, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows. Appropriate dips can be bought [112]. - Investment Viewpoint: Neutral [112]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy on dips. Arbitrage: Temporarily observe. Risk concerns: Trade frictions and macro - level policies [112].