航运衍生品数据日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term EC market is centered around contract price negotiation and spot price fluctuation. With the supply - demand in a loose pattern, there is insufficient upward driving force for prices. It is recommended to handle it with a volatile mindset and be vigilant against the downward risk caused by continuous supply expansion, while focusing on the subsequent shipment rhythm and unexpected changes in the geopolitical situation [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Shipping Derivatives Data - China Export Container Freight Rates: - SCFI - US West: Present value is 2249, previous value is 1489, with a growth rate of 14.85% [1] - SCFI - US East: Present value is 3111, previous value is 2717, with a growth rate of 15.93% [1] - SCFIS - US West: Present value is 1618, previous value is 1452, with a growth rate of 14.50% [1] - SCFI - Northwest Europe: Present value is 1710, previous value is 1489, with a growth rate of 14.85% [1] - CCFI Composite Index SCFI: Present value is 1072, previous value is 1054, with a growth rate of 1.70% [1] - SCFI - Mediterranean: Present value is 1545, previous value is 1463, with a growth rate of 5.60% [1][2] - SCFIS - Northwest Europe: Present value is 2666, previous value is 2360, with a growth rate of 12.97% [1][2] Geopolitical Events - The US military launched an air strike on Iranian facilities on Kharg Island. There were over 15 explosions on the island, but the oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air - defense system restarted after about an hour. Iran stated that oil exports from the island were normal and important oil infrastructure was not damaged [2] - Trump said the conditions were not good enough, and he was not ready to reach an agreement with Iran [2] - According to the New York Post, Iran's foreign minister said that all countries except the US and Israel were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz [2] - The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps firmly believes that if Iran loses control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will lose the war [2] Market Conditions and Logic - Market Conditions: The market showed a weak and volatile trend [3] - Logic: This week, the core of the container shipping European line revolved around the game between marginal changes in supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical event drivers. On the supply side, the capacity deployment on the European line was on a continuous upward trend. The weekly average capacity in March was 270,000 TEU, and it remained above 300,000 TEU in April - May. With the redeployment of idle capacity from the Middle - East route to the European line, the pressure of loose supply was gradually emerging. On the demand side, the fulfillment of the traditional post - holiday peak shipping season was lower than expected, and the recovery of terminal demand in Europe and the US was slow, providing limited support for spot freight rates. At the event level, the long - term Red Sea conflict has been gradually priced in by the market, and the marginal cost premium brought by route detours has weakened [4] Strategy - Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to the 4 - 5 reverse spread [6]