伊朗局势仍不明朗，国内经济数据好坏参半

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with most industrial and agricultural products following the upward trend. Driven by the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international oil prices soared, leading to a collective increase in the energy and chemical sectors, and other sectors were also affected to some extent [3]. - The situation in Iran remains unclear, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically come to a standstill, causing global energy prices to continue to soar under uncertainty. Global inflation is facing rebound pressure, and the IMF warns that if oil prices rise by 10% throughout the year, global inflation may be pushed up by about 40 basis points, with emerging markets being particularly vulnerable. The agricultural supply chain has been impacted, and fertilizer prices have risen by over 20%. American farmers will also be forced to adjust their planting structures [3]. - The US Trade Representative announced a new round of trade investigations against 16 major trading partners, including China and the EU, and may impose new punitive tariffs or other trade restrictions [3]. - In February, the US CPI rose by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years since March 2021. However, the impact of soaring oil prices has not been factored in. The impact of oil prices on inflation is divided into two levels: the direct impact may push the overall CPI in March to over 3% year - on - year, and the indirect transmission will penetrate into core inflation through cost - push and inflation expectations [3]. - In February, China's CPI rose by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI fell by 0.9% year - on - year. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, international crude oil prices have risen significantly since March, and the rise in energy - related industrial product prices may significantly push up the overall PPI. It is expected that the year - on - year PPI in March will continue to recover, and the PPI growth rate is expected to turn positive in the second quarter [3]. - From January to February 2026, China's foreign trade had a strong start, with the import and export scale reaching a record high for the same period. In US dollars, the total import and export value in the first two months was $1.09954 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 21.0%. Exports were $656.58 billion, a year - on - year increase of 21.8%, and imports were $442.96 billion, a year - on - year increase of 19.8% [3]. - In February, the year - on - year increase in social financing decreased. Under the high base, government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while credit and undiscounted acceptance bills supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. Loan disbursement decreased seasonally in February, but the year - on - year decrease narrowed, mainly due to the corporate sector [3]. Group 3: Overseas Situation Analysis - The situation in Iran remains unclear, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has basically stopped, leading to a continuous rise in global energy prices. Global inflation is under rebound pressure, and the agricultural supply chain has been affected, with fertilizer prices rising by over 20% [3]. - The US will conduct a new round of trade investigations against 16 major trading partners, including China and the EU, and may impose new punitive tariffs or other trade restrictions [3]. - In February, the US CPI rose by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose by 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years since March 2021. The impact of soaring oil prices on inflation has not been factored in, and it may push the overall CPI in March to over 3% year - on - year [3] Group 4: Domestic Situation Analysis - In February, China's CPI rose by 1.3% year - on - year, and the PPI fell by 0.9% year - on - year. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the PPI is expected to continue to recover in March and turn positive in the second quarter [3]. - From January to February 2026, China's foreign trade had a strong start, with the import and export scale reaching a record high for the same period. Exports increased by 21.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 19.8% year - on - year [3]. - In February, the year - on - year increase in social financing decreased. Government bond issuance decreased year - on - year, while credit and undiscounted acceptance bills supported the year - on - year increase in social financing. Loan disbursement decreased seasonally, but the year - on - year decrease narrowed, mainly due to the corporate sector [3] Group 5: High - Frequency Data Tracking - The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces are presented in the data, such as the operating rate of PTA in the polyester industry chain being 82% - 85% [34][36]. - The sales data of manufacturers, including wholesale and retail, and their year - on - year changes are shown [40]. - The prices of agricultural products, such as the average wholesale prices of 28 key - monitored vegetables, fruits, and pork, are provided [45][46]