2026年夏秋航季国内航司换季概览：夏秋换季国内计划时刻量同比下降2.71%

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has released the flight schedule for the summer-autumn season of 2026, indicating a 2.71% year-on-year decrease in domestic flight schedules, reflecting the intention to control capacity [3][5] - The flight schedule in first-tier cities shows a slight increase of 0.72%, while lower-tier cities experience declines ranging from 1.45% to 9.97% [3] - The overall structure of flight schedules remains stable, with first-tier, new first-tier, second-tier, and third-tier cities accounting for 19%, 28%, 26%, and 12% of total schedules, respectively [3] - Airlines such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines show significant year-on-year growth in domestic flight schedules, while China Southern Airlines has the highest proportion of schedules in first-tier cities [3] - The report highlights that international flight schedules are recovering, with domestic airlines' international and regional flight schedules reaching 97% and 89% of 2019 levels, respectively [3][31] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is 632.8 billion yuan, with 12 listed companies [1] Flight Schedule Analysis - Domestic airlines' flight schedules for the summer-autumn season of 2026 show a year-on-year decrease of 2.71%, with specific declines in various city tiers [3][5] - The highest number of domestic flight schedules is at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with 8,777 schedules per week [3] Airline Performance - China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Air China show varying growth rates in domestic flight schedules, with Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines experiencing notable increases [3] - The report recommends focusing on opportunities in the international flight sector due to favorable policies and trends in cross-border travel [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests taking advantage of the current adjustments in the market, recommending key airlines such as the "Big Three" (China Southern, China Eastern, Air China), Hainan Airlines, and Spring Airlines for their performance certainty [3]