化工情绪带动期价，纸浆基差走弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the pulp futures price generally fluctuated slightly stronger, with both positions and trading volume increasing, but the spot price remained weak, and the basis of needle and broadleaf pulp weakened [4]. - Affected by the increase in oil prices and shipping freight due to the US - Iran war, the cost of pulp exported from Northern Europe to China increased by about $20 per ton, but it has not affected the long - term contract FOB price in March 2026. Two large - scale broadleaf pulp mills in Brazil and Uruguay issued regular maintenance notices this week, and foreign broadleaf pulp suppliers still have the intention to support prices [4]. - This week, the port inventory of needle pulp continued to accumulate, while the broadleaf pulp slightly decreased. There is no obvious positive news for needle pulp. Notably, a large number of new warehouse receipts were added this week, mainly Ural needle pulp, and the overall pulp warehouse receipts changed from tight to loose [4]. - This week, the prices of cultural paper and household paper were basically stable, while the price of white cardboard slightly decreased. The new round of price increase letters issued by paper mills may be difficult to implement. In February 2026, cultural paper slightly accumulated inventory, and white cardboard significantly accumulated inventory [4]. - This week, the US - Iran war continued to drive up the prices of chemical products, and the war tends to be long - term. Although the current impact on pulp prices is mainly the driving of commodity sentiment, it is still necessary to pay attention to whether it will be transmitted to the pulp FOB price through shipping freight and other means in the future [4]. - Pulp shows a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation". An inverse arbitrage strategy can be considered. There is no clear driving factor for unilateral trading, so it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Price performance: The pulp futures price fluctuated slightly stronger, with increased positions and trading volume, while the spot price was weak, and the basis of needle and broadleaf pulp weakened [4]. - Supply side: The cost of pulp exported from Northern Europe to China increased by about $20 per ton due to the US - Iran war, but it has not affected the March 2026 long - term contract FOB price. Two large - scale broadleaf pulp mills in Brazil and Uruguay issued maintenance notices, and foreign suppliers still have the intention to support prices [4]. - Inventory side: Needle pulp in port inventory continued to accumulate, broadleaf pulp slightly decreased, and a large number of new warehouse receipts were added, mainly Ural needle pulp [4]. - Demand side: The prices of cultural paper and household paper were stable, white cardboard price decreased slightly, and the new price increase letters of paper mills may be difficult to implement. In February 2026, cultural paper slightly accumulated inventory, and white cardboard significantly accumulated inventory [4]. - Macro aspect: The US - Iran war drove up chemical product prices, and the war may be long - term. It mainly affects pulp prices through commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to its impact on the FOB price through shipping freight [4]. - Strategy: Consider an inverse arbitrage strategy, and wait and see in the short term for unilateral trading [4]. 3.2 Part Two: Pulp and Paper Industry Chain Price Data - Futures market: The report presents data on pulp futures contract closing prices, total positions, weekly trading volume, and delivery volume [6][7]. - Spot market: The price of broadleaf pulp was stable, and the basis quotation of needle pulp decreased [15]. - FOB price: In March, the FOB price of needle pulp was flat, and the price of broadleaf pulp increased [28]. - Wood chip price: The report shows the market prices of wood chips in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions, as well as the monthly average import price of Chinese wood chips [38][40][43]. - Finished paper price: The price of white cardboard slightly decreased [45]. 3.3 Part Three: Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Needle pulp import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of needle pulp increased [56]. - Broadleaf pulp import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of broadleaf pulp decreased [70]. - South American pulp export volume: In February 2026, the export volume to China decreased slightly month - on - month [78]. - W20 chemical pulp shipment volume: In January 2026, the shipment volume of W20 chemical pulp to China decreased [86]. - Domestic pulp production: In February 2026, the domestic pulp production decreased [98]. - Wood chip import volume: In January - February 2025, the import volume of broadleaf wood chips increased [106]. - Domestic wood chip procurement volume: In February 2026, the domestic wood chip procurement volume decreased [119]. - Overseas pulp mill inventory: In January 2026, the inventory of needle pulp mills increased significantly [127]. - Chinese pulp port inventory: Needle pulp continued to accumulate inventory, and broadleaf pulp slightly decreased [134]. - Pulp futures warehouse receipt structure: A large number of new pulp warehouse receipts were registered this week [148]. - European pulp port inventory: Pulp inventory decreased month - on - month [158]. - Chinese wood pulp paper production: In February 2026, the production decreased [170]. - Chinese paper industry inventory: In January - February 2025, the inventory of finished paper increased [181]. - Chinese wood pulp paper mill inventory: Except for household paper, the inventory of other products increased [194]. - Chinese wood pulp paper social inventory: The inventory of household paper decreased, and the inventory of white cardboard increased [202]. - Chinese finished paper import volume: The report shows the import volume data of various types of finished paper [209]. - Chinese finished paper export volume: The report shows the export volume data of various types of finished paper [217]. - Chinese chemical pulp supply - demand balance sheet: It shows the supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand difference of chemical pulp from 2020 to February 2026 [226]. 3.4 Part Four: Pulp Spread Data - Pulp price spread: It shows the price spreads between different types of pulp, such as silver star - Russian needle, silver star - broadleaf, and Russian needle - broadleaf, and their distribution maps [229][237]. - Pulp monthly spread: The 5 - 9 spread weakened [242]. - Pulp basis: The basis of needle pulp weakened [253]. - Global major pulp mill profit: The profit of needle pulp mills decreased significantly [265]. - Chinese pulp import profit: The import profit of needle pulp decreased [277]. - Chinese finished paper production profit: It shows the production profits of double - offset paper, copper - plate paper, household paper, white cardboard, and the operating profit and ton - paper profit of the paper industry [285][291].