粕类周报：多因素共振推升波幅，关注资金情绪变化-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are affected by multiple factors, with short - term trends being volatile and on the stronger side, but the upside space is subject to various constraints. Multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and policy expectations drive the prices out of the previous trading range, and attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Brazil's slow soybean harvesting, shipping, and sales lead to a shift in selling pressure, and although the expected area of new US soybean crops increases, cost support is strong. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bullish, and medium - term is bearish. Short - term import of rapeseed is limited, and domestic inventory is low, but supply is expected to ease marginally after March [4]. - Demand: For soybean meal, short - term is neutral, and long - term is bearish. There is still rigid demand support due to a large breeding inventory base, but attention should be paid to the expected decline in long - term demand. For rapeseed meal, short - term is bearish, but there is a seasonal rebound expectation in aquaculture demand from April to June, and the expanding price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal may divert some soybean meal demand [4]. - Inventory: Soybean meal inventory in domestic ports and oil mills is still at a high level, and the physical inventory days of feed enterprises are decreasing. Rapeseed meal inventory in major regions has decreased weekly, and low inventory supports near - month prices [4]. - Basis/Spread: The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expanding. Market concerns about supply from March to April drive the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal to strengthen. Rapeseed meal mainly follows the trend of soybean meal, and the expanding spot price difference is conducive to the consumption substitution of rapeseed meal [4]. - Profit: For soybean meal, short - term is bullish. Although costs have risen, soybean meal prices have increased, and crushing margins have improved. For rapeseed meal, it is neutral, and crushing margins have recovered this week [4]. - Valuation: Soybean meal is in the lower - middle range of historical valuations and is sensitive to positive factors. Rapeseed meal is at a relatively low level, and there is room for valuation repair [4]. - Macro and Policy: Bullish. The Middle East conflict has pushed up oil and global logistics costs, bringing risk premiums to agricultural products. US biodiesel policy expectations support US soybean demand. Sino - Canadian trade relations have eased, and China has suspended the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal [4]. - Investment Views: Both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be volatile and on the stronger side in the short term. However, the upside space of rapeseed meal may be limited. Attention can be paid to the price difference arbitrage opportunities between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It is recommended to operate cautiously and guard against high - volatility risks [4]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and on the stronger side, and operate cautiously. For arbitrage, stay on the sidelines. Pay attention to policies and weather [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - Global Soybean and Rapeseed Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios: In March, the global soybean inventory - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 period was raised. The Canadian rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio was lowered [31][39]. - US Soybean Situation: US soybean domestic crushing margins are at a high level, but export sales progress is slow [45][54]. - Brazilian Soybean Situation: The Brazilian soybean harvesting rate is shown in the report, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums and import soybean gross margins [61][63]. - Domestic Situation: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, and feed enterprise inventories are declining. There are also data on domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports, inventory, oil mill operating rates, and crushing volumes [73][86]. - Feed and Livestock Farming: The cost - performance of soybean meal has declined. There are data on feed monthly output, livestock and poultry farming profits, and production capacity [94][100].