海外因素压制风险偏好，股指偏弱震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to stabilize and resume its upward trend in the future as the external geopolitical situation eases and market risk appetite recovers. Domestically, the economic tone is generally in line with expectations, multiple policies continue to work together to promote economic growth, macro - liquidity remains abundant, and capital market policies aim to support a "slow - bull" market. There is still upward room for the stock index. Strategically, investors can consider constructing long positions in the medium - to - long - term by taking advantage of the stock index futures discount [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces - Economic and Corporate Profits: 1 - 2 months' exports in China exceeded expectations, with a total export of 20994.3 billion yuan and a growth rate of 18.3%, much higher than the market - expected 7.2%. In February, the single - month export growth rate was as high as 36.1%. February's financial data continued to show a good trend, with new social financing of 2.38 trillion yuan, an increase of 146.1 billion yuan year - on - year. The "Two Sessions" closed, and the goals in the "Government Work Report" were basically in line with expectations [3]. - Policy: The CSRC Chairman proposed to improve the market mechanism and ecosystem for "long - term investment of long - term funds", perfect the construction of the Chinese - characteristic market - stabilizing mechanism, and add a more precise and inclusive listing standard on the Growth Enterprise Market. The central bank governor said that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently [3][50]. - Overseas Factors: The uncertainty of the Middle East conflict remains, and the risk of overseas imported inflation is still high. China and the US will hold economic and trade consultations in France [3]. - Liquidity: Last week, A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 4.563 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3]. - Investment Viewpoint and Trading Strategy - The investment view is to go long in the medium - to - long - term. The strategy is to go long in the medium - to - long - term at an appropriate time, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.19% to 4669.1; the Shanghai 50 fell 1.2% to 2956.8; the CSI 500 fell 1.44% to 8239.8; the CSI 1000 fell 0.42% to 8214.3 [5]. - Industry Index Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the power equipment (4.6%), building decoration (4.1%), public utilities (3.1%), banks (1.4%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (1%) led the gains last week, while national defense and military industry (- 6.6%), comprehensive (- 4.3%), non - ferrous metals (- 3.7%), media (- 3.2%), and machinery and equipment (- 2.4%) led the losses [9]. - Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures decreased by 18.05%, 26.46%, 20.34%, and 12.86% respectively. The open interest of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 futures, Shanghai 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures changed by 0.18%, - 2.85%, 0.91%, and 2.17% respectively [11]. - Contract Premium and Discount: As of March 13, the annualized discounts of the current - month contracts IF2603, IC2603, and IM2603 were 12.44%, 16.45%, and 17.32% respectively, while IH2603 had an annualized premium of 0.27% [15]. 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Operations: This week, the central bank conducted 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with 277.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net withdrawal of 101.1 billion yuan. Next week, 176.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 60 billion yuan of 182 - day repurchase - style reverse repurchases will mature on March 17. The central bank has carried out 50 billion yuan of repurchase - style reverse repurchase operations, with a reduction of 10 billion yuan [24]. - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance: As of March 12, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2656.15 billion yuan, an increase of 18.95 billion yuan from the previous week. As of March 12, the proportion of margin trading purchases in the total market trading volume was 9.5%, at the 74% quantile level in the past ten years. Last week, the daily trading volume of A - shares decreased, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 4.563 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of March 13, the risk premium rate of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.22, at the 48.4% quantile level in the past ten years [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profits - Macroeconomic Indicators: In February 2026, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, a decrease of 0.3 from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, an increase of 0.1 from the previous month. In terms of other indicators, the export in US dollars increased by 39.6% in February, and the import increased by 13.8% [33][42]. - Corporate Profit Indicators: The year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and other major broad - based indexes showed different trends in different periods. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 was 5.22% as of September 30, 2025 [45]. 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driven - National People's Congress and Related Conferences: The "Government Work Report" set the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, the consumer price increase at about 2%, the deficit rate at 4%, and the deficit scale at 5.89 trillion yuan. The CSRC Chairman proposed to improve the market mechanism and ecosystem for "long - term investment of long - term funds", perfect the construction of the Chinese - characteristic market - stabilizing mechanism, and add a more precise and inclusive listing standard on the Growth Enterprise Market. The central bank governor said that this year, various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently [50]. - Other Policies: There have been a series of policies in real estate, consumption, and other fields, such as optimizing real estate purchase restrictions and promoting consumer goods replacement [51][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Indicators: In February, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 56.1%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate in February was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was - 92,000. In January, the year - on - year increase in PCE was 2.83%, and the year - on - year increase in core PCE was 3.06% [63][65][70]. 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of March 13, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.2 times, 11.5 times, 37.1 times, and 49.9 times respectively, at the 83.3%, 78.1%, 77.9%, and 72.8% quantile levels since October 2014 [72]. - Sector Valuation: Different sectors have different price - to - earnings ratios and price - to - book ratios and their corresponding historical quantile levels. For example, the price - to - earnings ratio of the banking sector is 6.3, at the 44% quantile level in the past ten years [76].