烧碱周报：美伊冲突扰动供应，烧碱期货大幅上涨-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on caustic soda investment [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish outlook on caustic soda [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance has decreased, and production has increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production has increased by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises is 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, and coastal chlor - alkali plants are expected to cut production due to raw material issues [3] - Demand: Alumina production has declined, and non - aluminum demand is weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 90.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang is 50.83%, an increase of 7.50% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 13.34%. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3,429,614.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [3] - Inventory: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 534,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 30.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the central China sample warehouse has increased by 21.74%, while that in the eastern China sample warehouse has decreased by 12.78% [3] - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around - 666, and the futures price is at a significant premium [3] - Profit: During the week, raw material and auxiliary material costs decreased, energy costs increased slightly, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been adjusted to 300 yuan/ton [3] - Valuation: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a significant premium [3] - Macroeconomic Policy: The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, causing a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown [3] - Investment View: Bullish, as the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to lead to significant production cuts in the future [3] - Trading Strategy: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, the spot price in Shandong has slightly increased, while the futures price has increased significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is in the red, there is less maintenance, and enterprises have less load reduction, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream customers resist high prices and make purchases based on rigid demand. Traders have a weak enthusiasm for stockpiling, but export transactions are good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong is better than expected, the inventory pressure is small, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce their loads. As a co - product, caustic soda is also facing shutdown or load reduction, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Electricity Price: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range [33] - Upstream Production: The production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted [36] - Production in Main Production Areas: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [39] - Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [40] - Downstream Prices: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [43] - Alumina: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. The supply is in surplus, and the bauxite inventory of factories has increased significantly [55][61] - Non - Aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the startup rate is at a low level. The printing and dyeing market is weak, and the short - term market recovery is乏力 [62][63] - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The startup rate has rebounded [71]