新能源周报：基本面支撑转弱，期价震荡运行-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, for specific products: - Industrial silicon: The investment view is "oscillating", suggesting a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook with price expected to oscillate moderately upward [5]. - Polysilicon: The investment view is "wait - and - see", indicating caution due to poor contract liquidity [6]. - Lithium carbonate: The investment view is "oscillating", meaning it may enter a stage of oscillating operation [71]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the fundamentals of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. For industrial silicon, there is an increase in both supply and demand, but inventory pressure remains, leading to an expected price oscillation. Polysilicon has issues with contract liquidity, so a wait - and - see approach is recommended. Lithium carbonate's price may oscillate due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, mixed new - energy vehicle data, and ongoing inventory reduction [5][6][71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) 3.1.1 Supply - National weekly production is 66,300 tons, a 0.38% week - on - week increase; the number of open furnaces is 202, a net increase of 3 compared to the previous week. In Xinjiang, weekly production is 41,600 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces remains the same. In Yunnan, weekly production is 4,300 tons, a 10.36% week - on - week increase, and the number of open furnaces increases by 2. Sichuan has stopped production, but the number of open furnaces increases by 2. February production is 275,700 tons, a 26.58% month - on - month decrease and a 4.77% year - on - year decrease; March production is scheduled to be 345,400 tons, a 25.27% month - on - month increase and a 0.99% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - For polysilicon, weekly production is 19,600 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase; factory inventory is 372,900 tons, a 3.51% week - on - week increase; the profit per ton is about - 1,663 yuan, a decrease of 3,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. February production is 77,000 tons, a 23.61% month - on - month decrease and a 14.54% year - on - year decrease; March production is scheduled to be 84,900 tons, a 10.26% month - on - month increase and an 11.65% year - on - year decrease. For organic silicon, DMC weekly production is 41,900 tons, a 0.24% week - on - week decrease; factory inventory is 46,100 tons, a 2.67% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is 1,350 yuan, a decrease of 601 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. February production is 173,200 tons, a 15.06% month - on - month decrease and a 13.18% year - on - year decrease; March production is scheduled to be 212,500 tons, a 22.69% month - on - month increase and a 13.09% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Explicit inventory is 547,200 tons, a 1.72% week - on - week decrease and a 23.88% year - on - year decrease. Industry inventory is 4,437,400 tons, a 3.38% week - on - week decrease. Market inventory is 182,500 tons, a 0.54% week - on - week decrease; factory inventory is 254,900 tons, a 5.31% week - on - week decrease. Warehouse receipt inventory is 109,900 tons, a 5.47% week - on - week increase [5]. 3.1.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 9,073 yuan, a 0.01% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is - 105 yuan, an increase of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. In the main production areas, the gross profit decreases. The average gross profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 209 yuan, - 562 yuan, and - 50 yuan respectively, a decrease of 3 yuan, 2 yuan, and 50 yuan compared to the previous week [5]. 3.1.5 Investment and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The price is expected to oscillate moderately upward. Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on an oscillating market. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in environmental protection policies [5]. 3.2 Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Supply - National weekly production is 19,600 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. February production is 77,000 tons, a 23.61% month - on - month decrease and a 14.54% year - on - year decrease; March production is scheduled to be 84,900 tons, a 10.26% month - on - month increase and an 11.65% year - on - year decrease [6]. 3.2.2 Demand - Silicon wafer weekly production is 10.84 GW, a 0.07% week - on - week decrease. The gross profit per GW is - 33,610 yuan, unchanged from the previous week. Factory inventory is 28.35 GW, a 2.28% week - on - week decrease. February silicon wafer production is 44.27 GW, a 3.61% month - on - month decrease and an 8.38% year - on - year decrease; March production is scheduled to be 49.01 GW, a 10.71% month - on - month increase and a 3.45% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, the new installed capacity is 40.18 GW, a 43.30% year - on - year decrease and an 82.47% month - on - month increase. The total installed capacity in 2025 is 315.07 GW, a 13.67% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Factory inventory is 372,900 tons, a 1.29% week - on - week increase. Registered warehouse receipts are 32,070 tons, a 13.36% week - on - week increase [6]. 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - The national average cost per ton is 44,190 yuan, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; the gross profit per ton is - 1,663 yuan, a decrease of 3,800 yuan compared to the previous week [6]. 3.2.5 Investment and Trading Strategy - Investment view: Wait - and - see. Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be in a wait - and - see mode. Risks to watch include production cuts and restarts by large manufacturers and changes in anti - involution policies [6]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate (LC) 3.3.1 Supply - National weekly production is 2.34 tons, a 3.70% week - on - week increase. Lithium spodumene extraction production is 14,534 tons, a 4.46% week - on - week increase; lithium mica extraction production is 2,937 tons, a 3.71% week - on - week increase; salt lake extraction production is 3,495 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase. February lithium carbonate production is 83,100 tons, a 15.13% month - on - month decrease and a 35.00% year - on - year increase; March production is scheduled to be about 106,400 tons, a 28.04% month - on - month increase and a 34.56% year - on - year increase [71]. 3.3.2 Import - In December, the import volume of lithium carbonate is 24,000 tons, an 8.77% month - on - month increase and a 14.43% year - on - year decrease. The import volume from Chile is 13,500 tons, a 24.96% month - on - month increase and a 41.74% year - on - year decrease. In February 2026, Chile's exports of lithium carbonate to China are 22,400 tons, a 32.04% month - on - month increase and an 85.89% year - on - year increase. In December, the import volume of lithium concentrate is 628,000 tons, a 7.31% month - on - month decrease and a 30.22% year - on - year increase. The import volume from Australia is 309,500 tons, a 27.18% month - on - month decrease and a 1.89% year - on - year increase; the import volume from Zimbabwe is 130,900 tons, a 21.15% month - on - month increase and a 39.50% year - on - year increase [71]. 3.3.3 Demand - Material demand: For iron - lithium materials, weekly production is 113,400 tons, a 0.55% week - on - week increase; factory inventory is 105,800 tons, a 5.22% week - on - week increase. February production is 348,200 tons, a 12.20% month - on - month decrease and a 52.00% year - on - year increase; March production is scheduled to be 430,400 tons, a 23.61% month - on - month increase and a 66.08% year - on - year increase. For ternary materials, weekly production is 19,400 tons, a 0.62% week - on - week increase; factory inventory is 18,000 tons, a 1.17% week - on - week increase. February production is 70,700 tons, a 12.77% month - on - month decrease and a 46.50% year - on - year increase; March production is scheduled to be about 84,400 tons, a 19.29% month - on - month increase and a 45.64% year - on - year increase. - Terminal demand: In February, the production of new - energy vehicles is 694,000 units, a 33.31% month - on - month decrease and a 21.81% year - on - year decrease; the sales volume is 765,000 units, a 19.03% month - on - month decrease and a 14.20% year - on - year decrease. The penetration rate of new - energy vehicles in February is 42.38%, a 2.10 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The export volume of new - energy vehicles in February is 282,000 units, a 6.62% month - on - month decrease and a 115.27% year - on - year increase. In the first quarter, due to the expiration of new - energy vehicle purchase tax incentives and the phasing - out of national subsidies, combined with the pre - release of demand in December, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles may decline month - on - month. In January, the winning bid power/scale for energy storage is 9.12 GW/23.1 GWh, a 49.92%/46.29% month - on - month decrease and a 98.26%/124.93% year - on - year increase [71]. 3.3.4 Inventory - Social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 99,000 tons, a 0.42% week - on - week decrease, indicating continuous inventory reduction. Lithium salt factory inventory is 16,300 tons, a 6.78% week - on - week decrease; downstream inventory (cathode factories, battery factories, and traders) is 82,700 tons, a 0.94% week - on - week increase. Among them, cathode factory inventory is 45,600 tons, a 4.32% week - on - week increase; battery factory + trader inventory is 37,000 tons, a 2.94% week - on - week decrease, indicating continuous release of downstream purchasing demand. Warehouse receipt inventory is 36,400 tons, a 1.19% week - on - week decrease [71]. 3.3.5 Cost and Profit - For external - purchased ore lithium extraction: The cash production cost of lithium mica is 151,428 yuan/ton, a 2.09% week - on - week decrease; the production profit is 942 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,191 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 156,628 yuan/ton, a 1.54% week - on - week increase; the production profit is - 728 yuan/ton, a decrease of 403 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. For integrated lithium extraction: The cash production cost of lithium mica is 63,218 yuan/ton, and the cash production cost of lithium spodumene is 55,276 yuan/ton [71]. 3.3.6 Investment and Trading Strategy - Investment view: The price is expected to oscillate. Trading strategy: Unilateral trading should be based on an oscillating market. Risks to watch include production cuts at the ore end, changes in environmental protection policies, and disturbances from large power battery manufacturers [71].