【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】：通胀预期升温，债期承压下挫-20260316

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - This week, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, with significant fluctuations in the ultra - long end. Rising oil prices due to the Middle East situation and domestic economic data have put pressure on the bond market, while the expected interest rate cut of over 10 trillion inter - bank deposits has provided phased support for bond futures prices [4]. - Short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to be more stable, suitable as a "stabilizer" in the portfolio. Long - term varieties will be dominated by the game between external inflation expectations and internal fundamentals, with greater volatility. The 30 - year contract will be in a weak shock, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 1.75% - 1.85%. If the subsequent economic data warms up more than expected or the equity market continues to strengthen, long - term interest rates still face upward pressure [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views - Weekly Market Overview: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The escalation of the Middle East situation led to a surge in oil prices, triggering input - type inflation expectations that suppressed the bond market. Domestic economic data showed a good start, with the CPI rising and PPI decline narrowing. The trade data was strong, which also put pressure on the bond market. The expected interest rate cut of over 10 trillion inter - bank deposits supported bond futures prices [4]. - Main Forecasts: Short - term Treasury bond futures are more stable, while long - term varieties are more volatile. The 30 - year contract is in a weak shock, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield fluctuates in a certain range. There is upward pressure on long - term interest rates under certain conditions [6]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), various interest rates (such as reverse repurchase rates, inter - bank deposit rates, etc.), and the relationship between different interest rates and yields (such as the spread between R007 and DR007, and the term spread of Treasury bonds and US Treasury bonds) [10][12][23]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows the basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures [46][56][62][71].