供给担忧持续发酵，油价重心持续走高

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Supply concerns continue to ferment, and the center of oil prices continues to rise. The current tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and limited impact of countries' strategic petroleum reserve releases make supply interruption concerns the main driver of short - term oil price increases [3][7] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply (Medium - Long Term): EIA expects a 1.5657 million barrels per day increase in crude oil supply in 2026, mainly from non - OPEC+ regions. OPEC predicts a supply of 106.70 million barrels per day in 2026, and if OPEC+ maintains the December 2025 production level, the 2026 production will be 170,000 barrels per day lower than demand. IEA expects a 1.1 million barrels per day increase in oil supply in 2026, a significant downward revision, mainly due to the Middle East war causing the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts in Gulf oil - producing countries. The oil supply in March is expected to drop to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since 2022 [3] - Demand (Medium - Long Term): EIA expects global crude oil demand in 2026 to be 104.79 million barrels per day, a 1.202 million barrels per day increase from 2025 and a 29,300 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast. OPEC expects global oil demand in 2026 to be 106.52 million barrels per day, a 1.3805 million barrels per day increase from 2025, and a 1.34 million barrels per day increase in 2027. IEA expects global oil consumption in 2026 to be 104.77 million barrels per day, an 849,400 barrels per day increase from 2025 but a 109,000 barrels per day downward revision from the previous month's forecast. Due to the Middle East crisis, the demand for aviation fuel and kerosene is revised down to 7.88 million barrels per day [3] - Inventory (Short Term): In the week ending March 6, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.824 million barrels, with an expected increase of 1.055 million barrels and a previous increase of 3.475 million barrels. Cushing crude oil in Oklahoma increased by 117,000 barrels, with a previous increase of 1.564 million barrels. In terms of refined products, refined oil inventories decreased by 1.349 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 692,000 barrels and a previous increase of 429,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 3.654 million barrels, with an expected decrease of 2.649 million barrels and a previous decrease of 1.704 million barrels [3] - Oil - Producing Country Policies (Medium - Long Term): OPEC+ decided to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April as a small and flexible adjustment to deal with the U.S. - Iran conflict and stabilize oil prices. U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said that the oil supply in the Western Hemisphere is not really tight, and the tightness is mainly in Asia. The U.S. has released 172 million barrels of crude oil and will take back 200 million barrels within a year. He also reiterated that actions in Iran will take weeks rather than months, and the release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) will help the U.S. through a few weeks of supply interruption, and oil prices are unlikely to rise to $200 per barrel [3] - Geopolitics (Short Term): The U.S. military launched an air strike on Iran's oil export hub, Kharg Island, targeting air defense systems, naval bases, and airport facilities, with more than 15 explosions reported. Iran said its oil infrastructure was not damaged, and the air defense system restarted after an hour. Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed all military targets," which was denied by Iran. The Iranian Armed Forces Command warned that if its energy facilities are attacked, it will destroy U.S. facilities of equal value. The U.S. Defense Secretary said that the U.S. plans to destroy all of Iran's threatening military capabilities, claiming that Iran's missile inventory has decreased by 90% and suicide drones by 95%. The U.S. military has sent an amphibious combat force (including 5,000 marines) to the Middle East, and the USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship has been dispatched from Japan. Trump said that the military action "will continue as long as necessary" and that a new round of fierce air strikes will be launched next week [3] - Macro - Finance (Short Term): According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.1%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by April is 3.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 96.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 0%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut by June is 19.5%. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index in January increased by 3.1% year - on - year, basically in line with expectations, the highest since March 2024, and increased by 0.4% month - on - month, in line with expectations and the previous value. The overall PCE price index increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous value of 2.9%, and increased by 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations and slightly moderated compared with the previous month [3] - Investment View: Bullish. The current tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the interruption of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and limited impact of countries' strategic petroleum reserve releases make supply interruption concerns the main driver of short - term oil price increases [3] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - Main Oil Product Prices: SC crude oil increased from 664.8 yuan/barrel to 750.8 yuan/barrel, a 12.94% increase; Brent crude oil increased from $93.32/barrel to $103.89/barrel, an 11.33% increase; WTI crude oil increased from $91.27/barrel to $99.31/barrel, an 8.81% increase [5] - Futures Warehouse Receipt Quantity: SC crude oil increased from 2.557 million barrels to 3.511 million barrels, a 37.31% increase; FU high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 43,340 tons to 29,340 tons, a 32.30% decrease; LU low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 41,830 tons to 25,620 tons, a 38.75% decrease [5] - Inventory and Refinery Operating Rate: U.S. + European + Singapore oil product inventories: gasoline decreased by 1.30%, diesel decreased by 0.76%, fuel oil decreased by 0.90%, and aviation kerosene decreased by 2.00%. Chinese oil product inventories: gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.58%, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.30%. Chinese refinery operating rates: the main refineries decreased by 1.46%, independent refineries increased by 0.82%, the U.S. increased by 1.60%, and Japan decreased by 5.30%. U.S. crude oil production decreased by 0.13% [5] 3.3 Futures Market Data - Market Review: Supply concerns continue to ferment, and oil prices continue to rise. This week, oil prices fluctuated significantly. On the supply side, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was severely blocked, the traffic volume dropped sharply, the crude oil supply in the Persian Gulf suffered significant losses, and Gulf oil - producing countries were forced to cut production, with no spare capacity to fill the gap, intensifying supply concerns. Policy - wise, the IEA led the release of 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves, the largest in history, but due to the slow release rhythm and limited market entry rate, it was difficult to alleviate the short - term shortage. As of March 13, the closing price of the WTI crude oil main contract was $99.31/barrel, a weekly increase of $8.04/barrel (+8.81%); the closing price of the Brent crude oil main contract was $103.89/barrel, a weekly increase of $10.57/barrel (+11.33%); the closing price of the SC crude oil main contract was 750.8 yuan/barrel, a weekly increase of 86 yuan/barrel (+12.94%) [7] - Monthly Spread and Internal - External Spread: The near - month spread strengthened significantly, and the internal - external spread expanded sharply [10] - Forward Curve: The monthly spread strengthened significantly [23] - Crack Spread: The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel strengthened [26] 3.4 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Production: - EIA expects a 1.566 million barrels per day increase in oil supply in 2026, mainly from the Americas such as the U.S. and Canada, but due to geopolitical influence, the supply growth is lower than previously expected. - OPEC expects the oil supply and demand in 2026 to be basically balanced. If OPEC+ maintains the December 2025 production level, the 2026 production will be 170,000 barrels per day lower than demand. - IEA expects a 1.1 million barrels per day increase in oil supply in 2026, a significant downward revision from the previous forecast, mainly due to the Middle East war causing the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz and production cuts in Gulf oil - producing countries. The oil supply in March is expected to drop to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest since the first quarter of 2022 [52] - U.S. production decreased slightly. As of the week ending March 6, U.S. domestic crude oil production decreased by 22,000 barrels to 13.678 million barrels per day; crude oil imports increased by 661,000 barrels per day, and exports decreased by 563,000 barrels per day. The total number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. in the week ending March 13 was 553, compared with 551 in the previous week [67] - Inventory: - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.824 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil increased by 117,000 barrels [78] - Northwest European crude oil inventories increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased [85] - Demand: - In the U.S., the implied demand for gasoline and diesel rebounded, and the refinery operating rate increased slightly. The refinery operating rate increased by 1.60% to 90.80%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 290,000 barrels per day to 16.37 million barrels per day. The implied demand for gasoline was 10.1204 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 761,800 barrels per day; the implied demand for distillates was 5.3157 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 391,000 barrels per day [106][116] - In China, the refinery capacity utilization rate decreased. In the week of 20260306 - 20260312, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 54.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 9.85%. In the 11th week of 2026 (20260306 - 0312), the capacity utilization rate of China's independent refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 58.99%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 percentage points [118][128] - Macro - Finance: U.S. Treasury yields increased, and the U.S. dollar index rose [142] - CFTC Positioning: The speculative net long position of WTI crude oil increased [152]