Guolian Minsheng Securities·2026-03-16 09:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several airlines, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), China Eastern Airlines (600115.SH), China Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous decline in domestic flight schedules for the second consecutive year, indicating a tightening supply logic in the industry. Domestic flight schedules decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, while international flight schedules increased by 15% [9]. - The report suggests that the industry may be entering a self-discipline phase regarding supply, with a stable market share at hub airports. It anticipates improved competition dynamics and profitability in the domestic airline sector [9]. - The report emphasizes the potential benefits for domestic airlines from increased international flight capacity, particularly in the European and Southeast Asian markets, which may enhance demand for inbound tourism [9]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Schedules - Domestic flight schedules for the summer and autumn of 2026 total 218,354 per week, down 2.7% year-on-year, marking a second consecutive annual decline [9]. - Airlines such as Huaxia Airlines and Spring Airlines have seen increases in domestic flights, while others like Hainan Airlines and China National Airlines have experienced the most significant declines [9]. International Flight Schedules - Domestic airlines have increased international flight schedules, while foreign airlines have reduced theirs. The combined flight schedule for domestic and foreign airlines is at 76.7% of the levels seen in the summer and autumn of 2019 [9]. - The report notes significant growth in flight schedules to the Middle East, Central Asia, South Asia, and South America, with Southeast Asia and Europe seeing the most substantial increases [9]. Hub Airport Market Shares - Major airlines maintain stable market shares at their respective hub airports, with China National Airlines holding 44.0% of outbound flights from Beijing, China Eastern Airlines 46.1% from Shanghai, and China Southern Airlines 51.4% from Guangzhou [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in Spring Airlines and China Southern Airlines, while also suggesting to pay attention to Huaxia Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and others due to the anticipated improvement in supply-demand dynamics and profitability [9].