玉米淀粉日报-20260316

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is predicted that US corn will fluctuate strongly at the bottom. The supply of North China corn is still low, and the spot price of corn continues to rise, while the purchase price at the northern port is weak today. The price of North China wheat continues to rise, and the price difference between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. With the increase in wheat auctions in March, it is expected that the spot price of Northeast corn has limited room to rise, and the 05 corn contract will maintain a high - level shock [9]. - For the 05 US corn contract, there is support at 450 cents per bushel. It is advisable to try to go long on the 05 corn contract at low prices. For the 05 corn and starch contracts, it is advisable to go long on the spread at low prices [10][11]. - The short - term option strategy is a cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - Futures Disk: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages of different corn and corn starch futures contracts (such as C2601, C2605, etc.) are presented. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2365, with a price increase of 1 and a price increase percentage of 0.04% [2]. - Spot and Basis: The spot prices, price changes, and basis of corn in different regions (such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiji, etc.) and starch in different regions (such as Longfeng, COFCO, etc.) are provided. For example, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2230, with no price change, and the basis is - 174 [2]. - Price Spread: The price spreads and their changes of corn inter - period, starch inter - period, and cross - variety are given. For example, the price spread of C01 - C05 is - 14, with a price change of 8 [2]. 2. Market Judgment - Corn: Crude oil prices have risen, US corn prices have increased, and the global corn supply pressure has weakened. The import profit of foreign corn has risen, and the import price from Brazil in July is 2319 yuan. The closing price at the northern port has dropped, around 2400 yuan. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is strong, while the purchase price at the northern port is weak today. The operating rate of deep - processing in North China has increased, and the spot price of corn continues to rise. The price difference between North China corn and Northeast corn has widened. The prices of wheat and corn are being auctioned, the price of North China wheat has risen, and the price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, reducing the cost - effectiveness of corn. The domestic aquaculture demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the short - term spot price of corn is relatively strong. It is expected that the 05 corn contract on the futures market will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the auction policy [4][7]. - Starch: The number of vehicles arriving at deep - processing plants in Shandong is still low, the spot price of Shandong corn is strong, and the spot price of starch in Shandong is around 3020 yuan. The spot price of starch in the Northeast is also rising. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. The price of starch mainly depends on the price of corn and downstream stocking. The by - product prices are relatively strong, higher than last year, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The short - term price of North China corn is strong, and the price of Northeast corn is still rising. It is expected that the supply of corn will increase, the operating rate of downstream enterprises will increase, and the upward space of the corn spot price is limited. The 05 starch contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8]. 3. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [12]. - Information on option contracts such as C2605 - P - 2260.DCE and C2603 - P - 2240.DCE, including the underlying asset price, closing price, price change percentage, implied volatility (IV), Delta, Gamma, Vega, and Theta, is provided [13]. 4. Related Attachments - Figures show the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 5 - 9 price spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract price spread, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and iFinD Information [15][17][18][21].