【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】：生柴和贸易政策加码，油脂基本面预期趋紧-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to go long on the overall oils and fats market. It suggests that after the crude oil price increase triggered by the Middle - East geopolitical shock, with the increasing Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, the price of oils and fats led by palm oil will shift from an emotional rise based on strong expectations to a further increase driven by actual industrial factors [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - side situation is neutral - bullish. Malaysia is expected to enter the production - increasing season, but Indonesia, the largest producer and exporter, has low inventory and will restrict palm oil exports, reducing the international palm oil supply. In China, a large amount of imported soybeans will arrive soon, the post - holiday soybean - crushing plant operating rate will recover, and the initial inventory of soybean oil is sufficient. After the arbitration of Canadian rapeseed, domestic oil mills are expected to actively replenish stocks, and the operating rate of oil mills will improve [3]. - Demand is bullish. Malaysia's exports improved significantly in early March. The US biodiesel policy is about to be announced, which is positive for US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed. Indonesia may implement B50 in the second half of the year. In the Chinese market, the trading volume of palm oil is weak, the demand for soybean oil is the most stable, and the pick - up of rapeseed oil has increased but is still low due to shortages [3]. - Inventory is neutral. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline in March, and Indonesia's palm oil inventory is expected to remain low. China's soybean oil inventory is expected to fluctuate due to the balance between the arrival of a large number of soybeans and domestic consumption and export demand. After the Canadian rapeseed trade policy is implemented and the near - term rapeseed shipments arrive in China, the rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually increase [3]. - Macroeconomic and policy factors are bullish. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is unstable, leading to a rise in crude oil prices and thus an increase in the price of oils and fats. The US biodiesel policy will be announced in March, and the biodiesel blending quota is expected to meet or exceed expectations. Indonesia plans to implement the B50 program this year and may restrict palm oil exports. The anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed has been determined, and it is rumored that Australian rapeseed will also enter commercial procurement, which is expected to ease the supply contradiction of rapeseed in China [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Neutral - bullish. Malaysia's production may increase, but Indonesia's low - inventory and export - restriction policies will reduce international palm oil supply. China's soybean imports will increase, and the rapeseed procurement situation will improve [3]. - Demand: Bullish. Malaysia's exports are improving, the US biodiesel policy is positive, Indonesia may implement B50, and in China, soybean oil demand is stable while palm oil trading is weak and rapeseed oil pick - up is limited [3]. - Inventory: Neutral. Malaysia's palm oil inventory may decline, Indonesia's will remain low, China's soybean oil inventory will fluctuate, and rapeseed oil inventory is expected to rise [3]. - Macroeconomic and Policy: Bullish. Middle - East geopolitics drives up crude oil prices, the US biodiesel policy is expected to be favorable, Indonesia's B50 program and export restrictions, and the easing of China's rapeseed supply contradiction [3]. - Investment View: Go long on oils and fats. Consider short - allocating soybean oil as a hedge due to its relatively weak biodiesel attribute [3]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Go long. Pay attention to crude oil fluctuations, Indonesian export policy, and biodiesel policy. Arbitrage: Carry out calendar - spread positive arbitrage and long palm oil short soybean oil [3]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as various price differences such as the P05 - 09, Y05 - 09, OI05 - 09 month - spreads, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [5][9][13]. 3.3 Oils and Fats Supply - Demand Fundamentals - Southeast Asian Weather: It shows precipitation and temperature forecasts in Southeast Asia, including past 14 - day precipitation, precipitation anomalies, and future 7 - day and 8 - 14 - day precipitation and temperature forecasts [20][22][28]. - Indonesian and Malaysian Palm Oil: It provides monthly supply - demand data of Indonesia and Malaysia, including production, domestic consumption, export volume, and ending inventory [32][36][38]. - Indian Vegetable Oil Imports: It shows the monthly import volume of vegetable oils in India, including palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and the total import volume of the three oils [44][48]. - Chinese Palm Oil: It presents the import profit, supply - demand situation, import volume, trading volume, and commercial inventory of Chinese palm oil, as well as import cost and profit per ton [50][52][54]. - Soybean Situation: It includes the weather and production situation in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, soybean trade data such as US soybean export sales and China's import procurement progress, and China's soybean arrival volume, soybean oil production, trading volume, and inventory [61][70][73]. - Rapeseed Situation: It shows the export situation of rapeseed from different origins, China's rapeseed arrival volume, rapeseed oil import and production data, and the operating rate and production of domestic rapeseed oil mills [86][88][93].