玻璃纯碱（地缘冲突扔左右情绪，玻纯受支撑

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflict remains the main influencing factor. The supply - demand of glass has marginal improvement, and its price is supported. The supply - demand of soda ash is average. Geopolitical conflict affects the supply and cost of glass and soda ash, providing short - term price support. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand of glass and soda ash is still under pressure. It is recommended to go long on glass in the short term [4][5][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: The daily output of float glass is 146,900 tons, with a decrease of 10,800 tons compared to 5 days ago. The industry's start - up rate is 71.09%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 5 days ago, and the capacity utilization rate is 73.8%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from 5 days ago. One production line was shut down this week, and one was ignited but has not produced glass yet. Another line will be shut down next week, so the output is expected to decrease steadily [4]. - Demand: Demand is slowly recovering, production and sales are improving, and market confidence is stabilizing, but the improvement space of demand is still limited [4]. - Inventory: The total inventory of enterprises is 75.849 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.788 million heavy boxes compared to the previous period, a decrease of 4.76% month - on - month and an increase of 7.96% year - on - year. The inventory days are 33.9 days, a decrease of 1.4 days compared to the previous period. Due to cost increases and restored market confidence, inventory may continue to decline [4]. - Investment view: Bullish. The recent geopolitical conflict is the main influencing factor, and the supply - demand has marginal improvement [4]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: Mainly go long on dips; Arbitrage: None [4]. Soda Ash - Supply: This week's soda ash output is 809,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.27%. Among them, the output of light soda ash is 380,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,200 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash is 428,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. The overall supply is at a high level [5]. - Demand: Direct demand is stable. The daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass remains stable in the short term, and future demand will mainly be stable [5]. - Inventory: The total inventory of manufacturers is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons compared to last Thursday, a decrease of 0.80%. The inventory of light soda ash is 1.0136 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash is 918,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,800 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the inventory has increased by 196,500 tons, a growth rate of 11.32%. Supported by enterprise orders, production and sales are good, and inventory has decreased slightly [5]. - Investment view: Neutral. The short - term geopolitical conflict is still the dominant factor, and the supply - demand is average [5]. - Trading strategy: Unilateral: None; Arbitrage: None [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - The price fluctuated and rose this week. The main contract closed at 1135 (+48), and the Shahe spot price was 972 (+16) [7]. Soda Ash - The price rose this week. The main contract closed at 1277 (+35), and the Shahe spot price was 1236 (+20) [13]. Spread/Basis - The 05 - 09 spread and basis of both soda ash and glass fluctuated [24]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Fundamental Data Glass - Supply: Supply is expected to decrease steadily. The production profit of glass fluctuates. Due to the geopolitical conflict, the price of petroleum coke has risen significantly, compressing the production profit of the petroleum coke process [27]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders are improving, but the real - estate completion data in the middle and later stages is not good. In 2025, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 10.0% year - on - year, the new construction area decreased by 20.4%, and the completed area decreased by 18.1% [30]. Soda Ash - Supply: The supply has reached a new high. The production profit of soda ash enterprises fluctuates upward. The ammonia - soda process theoretical profit is - 26.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The dual - ton profit of the combined - soda process is 166 yuan/ton, showing a significant upward trend [34][35]. - Demand: The direct demand remains stable in the short term, and the daily melting volume of float and photovoltaic glass remains stable. The inventory of manufacturers is decreasing. The total inventory is 1.9317 million tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons compared to last Thursday, a decrease of 0.80% [40].