瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260316

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the supply of sugar continues to increase as the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Thailand have turned from decline to increase, and the sugar content in sugarcane and sugar production rate continue to rise. However, due to significant disturbances in the energy market, the raw sugar price may move upwards. In the domestic market, as of now in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the sugar - making process, 50 fewer than the same period last year, and the first peak of sugar - making completion may come this week. Also, Zhengzhou sugar prices are boosted by the external market, with the price center continuing to rise. Later, attention should be paid to the impact of the macro - environment on the market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5472 yuan/ton with a change of 25, and the main contract position volume is 418,200 hands with a change of 2015. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,342, and the net long position volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 120,011 hands with a change of 2956. The total forecast of effective warehouse receipts is 0 with a change of - 684 [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processed price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4083 yuan/ton with a change of 15, and that of Thai sugar is 4011 yuan/ton with a change of 32. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5174 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5080 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5335 yuan/ton with no change, and in Nanning, Guangxi is 5460 yuan/ton with a change of - 10. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5480 yuan/ton with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares with a change of 60, and the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares with a change of 5.24. The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 222.97 million tons with a change of - 7. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is - 16 yuan/ton, and outside the quota (50% tariff) is 1405 yuan/ton. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 242 yuan/ton with a change of - 12 [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons with a change of 14, and the cumulative import volume is 492 million tons. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons with a change of 66.58, and in Yunnan is 25.06 million tons. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 402.9 million tons with a change of 208.71, and in Yunnan is 59.18 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 228.74 million tons, and that of soft drinks is 1342.1 million tons with a change of 296.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 13.51% with a change of 0.51, and that of at - the - money put options is 13.5% with a change of 0.51. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.12% with a change of 0.11, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.79% with a change of 0.06 [2] Industry News - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) predicts that Brazil's sugar - cane planting area in 2026 will be 9.373731 million hectares, a 1.3% decrease from last month's forecast and a 2.0% decrease from last year. The estimated sugar - cane output is 700.3801 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from last month's forecast and a 0.4% decrease from last year. As of March 11, 2025/26 sugar - making season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume is 88.3668 million tons, a 0.48% year - on - year increase; the sugar output is 9.7927 million tons, a 2.98% year - on - year increase; the sugar content in sugar - cane is 12.80%, a 0.22 percentage - point increase from the same period last year; and the sugar production rate is 111.08%, a 0.269 percentage - point increase [2]