瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20260316

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report Corn - The USDA has raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast and analysts' expectations. However, the intensifying conflict between the US and Iran has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, boosting freight rates and international corn market prices. The increase in import prices also has a positive impact on the domestic market. In the domestic market, the temperature in the Northeast production area has risen, increasing the storage pressure of damp grain, and the grass - root grain sources have been released. But the remaining grain inventory in the market is low, and the grain rights are gradually transferred to the trading sector. The purchasing enthusiasm of the China Grain Reserves Corporation has increased, and some traders sell goods according to the market. The scope of price increases in the deep - processing industry has narrowed. The price difference between wheat and corn has reached around 100 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises have started to purchase wheat. The policy adjustment of the lowest - price wheat auction has increased the投放 volume from 300,000 tons to 500,000 tons and expanded the participation scope, which may increase the demand for wheat as a feed substitute and weaken the later - stage demand for corn. The corn futures price fluctuates at a high level, and short - term participation is recommended [2]. Corn Starch - As the production of corn starch enterprises gradually recovers, the operating rate of the corn starch industry has increased, and the supply - side pressure has increased. However, the increase in the operating rate is relatively slow, the downstream demand has improved, the downstream提货 volume has increased, and the industry inventory has slightly decreased. As of March 11, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.209 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%, and a year - on - year decline of 11.17%. Supported by the strong performance of corn, the starch market has been oscillating strongly recently [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract): 2,379 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; corn futures closing price (active contract): 2,743 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (5 - 9): 14 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (5 - 7): - 5 yuan/ton; corn futures open interest (active contract): 1,378,887 lots, a decrease of 26,284 lots; corn starch futures open interest (active contract): 243,412 lots, a decrease of 1,880 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures positions in corn: - 267,241 lots; net long positions of the top 20 futures positions in corn starch: - 22,196 lots, a decrease of 3,254 lots; registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn: 78,463 lots; registered warehouse receipts of corn starch: 6,560 lots; CS - C spread of the main contract: 341 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton [2]. Outer - Disk Market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract): 467 cents/bushel, an increase of 5 cents/bushel; total CBOT corn positions (weekly): 1,723,308 contracts, an increase of 105,847 contracts; non - commercial net long positions of CBOT corn: 167,722 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Average spot price of corn: 2,448.63 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.77 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Changchun: 2,830 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Weifang: 3,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; ex - factory price of corn starch in Shijiazhuang: 3,020 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; CIF price of imported corn: 2,090.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.35 yuan/ton; international freight of imported corn: 0 US dollars/ton; basis of the main corn contract: 8.77 yuan/ton; basis of the main corn starch contract: 58 yuan/ton; price difference between Shandong starch and corn (weekly): 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; price difference between wheat and corn starch (weekly): 737 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; price difference between corn starch and 30 - powder: - 69 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted sown area of corn in the US: 36.93 million hectares, an increase of 0.49 million hectares; forecasted corn output in the US: 432.34 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Brazil: 22.6 million hectares; forecasted corn output in Brazil: 131 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in Argentina: 7.5 million hectares; forecasted corn output in Argentina: 53 million tons; forecasted sown area of corn in China: 44.96 million hectares, an increase of 0.66 million hectares; forecasted corn output in China: 301.24 million tons; forecasted corn output in Ukraine: 29 million tons; corn inventory in southern ports (weekly): 69.6 million tons, a decrease of 19.6 million tons; deep - processing corn inventory (weekly): 337.7 million tons, a decrease of 6 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory in northern ports (weekly): 219 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; weekly inventory of starch enterprises (weekly): 120.9 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons; monthly import volume of corn: 80 million tons, an increase of 24 million tons; monthly export volume of corn starch: 16,740 tons, a decrease of 200 tons; monthly output of feed: 3,008.6 million tons, an increase of 30.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days (weekly): 30 days, a decrease of 5 days [2]. Downstream Situation - Corn starch processing profit in Shandong: - 23 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Hebei: 96 yuan/ton; corn starch processing profit in Jilin: - 16 yuan/ton; deep - processing corn consumption (weekly): 126.86 million tons, an increase of 4.91 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.61%, an increase of 1.53%; starch enterprise operating rate (weekly): 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% [2]. Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.59%, an increase of 0.38%; 60 - day historical volatility of corn: 7.23%, an increase of 0.08%; implied volatility of at - the - money call options on corn: 15.67%, an increase of 0.22%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options on corn: 15.67%, an increase of 0.21% [2]. Industry News - The Brazilian National Supply Company (CONAB) released the sixth survey of this year, predicting that the total corn output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 138.27 million tons, lower than last month's forecast of 138.45 million tons and a 2.0% decrease from last year (last month's forecast was a 1.9% decrease). - The Indonesian Biofuel Producers Association (APROBI) stated that the road test of 50% palm - based biodiesel blend fuel (B50) will not end ahead of schedule. - The USDA raised the global corn inventory forecast to 2.9275 billion tons, higher than last month's forecast of 2.8898 billion tons and analysts' previous expectations of 2.8919 billion tons [2]. Key Points to Watch - Pay attention to mysteel's weekly corn consumption, starch enterprise operating rate, and inventory on Thursday and Friday [3]